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Since May 15, the US BTC spot ETF has experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling $4.33 billion over 13 days, with a total outflow of $5.42 billion over a 20-day window.
All rolling outflow windows of 7 days, 10 days, and 20 days have set historical records; this is the most severe ETF capital withdrawal since records began.
Strategy holds 843,706 BTC, currently with an unrealized loss of about $10 billion, a 17% loss over 6 years of accumulated purchases. During the same period, the S&P 500 has risen 116%.
Saylor's response is: This is capital rotation, not damage; funds are shifting toward AI infrastructure.
I think what he's saying is true, but it's not the meaning he wants you to understand.
Capital rotation doesn't mean $BTC is fine, but that BTC has lost to a more attractive story in this round of competition.
In the past 6 months, AI capital expenditure has been about $400 billion, and by 2026, US tech giants' budgets are expected to exceed $600 billion. This money won't all flow into crypto.
Institutional asset allocation isn't infinitely expandable; it's zero-sum. What AI takes, BTC doesn't get.
The deeper issue is that when the BTC ETF was initially approved, the market narrative was institutional entry, long-term allocation, digital gold. But 13 days of continuous net outflows indicate that a significant part of this so-called institutional allocation is actually trend-following capital.
Rising when prices go up, selling when prices go down, similar to retail investors' behavior, just on a larger scale with more destructive power.
The narrative of digital gold needs holding behavior that can withstand cycles. What we're seeing now is speculative capital using the ETF shell.
Saylor is losing $10 billion but still talking about capital rotation.
I don't deny his long-term logic, but one thing is true: the same money, over the past 6 years, buying the S&P 500 has gained 116%. Buying BTC has lost 17%.
In complex systems, narratives can last a long time, but ultimately, reality will align with prices at some point.
That moment could be a bottom reversal or a continued decline.
Waiting for signals, not faith 🫡
DYOR, not investment advice.
#BTC #ETF net outflows over multiple days #Strategy #ETF