‍#ETH跌幅超5%

Short-term stay cautious, long-term allocation is still possible

June 5th, the bullish faith continues to collapse, ETH has fallen 5.58% in 24 hours, breaking below $1800, with a low of $1734; BTC also came under pressure, breaking below the $63,000 mark. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours astonishingly exceeded $1.1 billion, with bulls in despair. Little Wealthy One believes that the suffering days for bulls may persist for a while, but the position for medium- and long-term investors to buy the dip is getting closer!

1️⃣ Trend Analysis: Short-term may still have room to fall, medium- and long-term investors can start to buy

The current market is in a liquidity vacuum period after high leverage liquidations, not the start of a trend reversal. BTC fell below $63,000 on June 4, reaching a low of $62,839; ETH dipped to $1,734, both hitting key support levels in nearly three months. This round of decline is not driven by deteriorating fundamentals but is the result of a triple resonance of macro risk aversion + concentrated leverage liquidations + weak spot demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently in the final wave of a weekly five-wave decline, with the ultimate target likely to break below the previous low of $59,900. Whether from the perspective of the decline cycle or price, we are already in the late stage of a bear market. For long-term investors on the left side, it may be time to consider entering the market. Of course, from a short-term view, the market remains bearish: the daily chart shows five consecutive down days, the 4-hour and daily moving averages are both in a bearish alignment, MACD shows increasing green bars, and KDJ and RSI have corrected from yesterday’s oversold levels, indicating that the current position is just a short-term rebound after a sharp decline, a continuation of the downtrend, with room to go lower. I predict the market bottom may be around 55,000, which is a key buy-in level for long-term investors.

2️⃣ Practical Operations: Asset allocation and response strategies under extreme market conditions.

The current market not only keeps falling but also exhibits high volatility and great risk. Those who cannot handle it may choose diversified asset allocation, with US stocks and crude oil being good options. Last night, tech stocks in the US broadly corrected, making it a good time to buy the dip. For long-term investors buying Bitcoin and Ethereum dips, it’s advisable to allocate some short positions or put options to hedge risks.

Additionally, in extreme market conditions, strict discipline is essential: avoid “FOMO” and “revenge trading.”

‌Forbidden actions‌:

- Do not add long positions after a single-day drop of more than 5%;
- Do not double down to average down after losing 30%;
- Do not trust sensational social media claims that “the bottom is in.”

‌Recommended actions‌:

- Set‌ staggered entry trigger points: if BTC closes above $61,500 for three consecutive days and 24-hour volume rebounds above $4 billion, build positions in two tranches (each 10%);
- Use‌ limit orders instead of market orders to avoid slippage eating into capital;
- Review weekly at a fixed time,‌ avoid constantly watching the market‌, to prevent emotional interference.

‌Psychological preparation: understand that “the market isn’t for winning, it’s for surviving”‌.

‌Fear and Greed Index‌ is currently at 23 (extreme fear), but historical data shows that when the index is below 25 and doesn’t rebound for three days, it’s often a golden window for long-term investors to enter.

‌Institutional behavior‌: Coinbase’s premium index remains negative, indicating that US spot demand has not yet recovered,‌ and the “smart money” has not yet entered‌. At this point, “buying the dip” is mostly retail investors’ self-comfort.

‌Real opportunity‌: appears when‌ panic emotions subside, on-chain address net inflows increase, and options implied volatility drops below 50%—this may take 2–4 weeks.

‌Ultimate advice‌:

‌What you should do now isn’t predict the bottom, but ensure you survive until the next cycle’s peak.‌

Use stablecoins to preserve capital, spot holdings to maintain conviction, and options to protect your bottom line.

The market never rewards the bravest, only the most patient.