#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks, eight weeks of consecutive gains, IPO queues, what’s next

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. stocks, eight weeks of consecutive gains, IPO queues, what's next

Driven by a strong earnings season, U.S. stocks continue to rebound. Moving forward, market focus may shift to capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence (AI), the returns companies are gaining from these investments, and whether numerous AI and tech sector IPOs will further reinforce the AI investment thesis. Meanwhile, the policy stance changes of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will also become a key market focus.
Let's first look at the macro level:
We expect the U.S. real GDP growth rate to be 2.5% in 2026 (based on Franklin Templeton's global investment management survey), higher than the Federal Reserve's forecast of 2.3% and the Wall Street consensus of around 2%. The main drivers of economic growth this year include resilient consumer demand, fiscal stimulus such as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," and corporate investment fueled by AI development.
Latest revised data shows that the U.S. economy achieved an annualized growth of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026, mainly driven by corporate investment and consumer spending.
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a complex environment with inflation still relatively high. In April, PCE inflation was 3.8% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.3%, meeting market expectations but rising from March.
Interest rate futures indicate that the market currently expects the Fed's next move to be a rate hike in 2027. Before the outbreak of U.S.-Iran conflict, the market had anticipated two rate cuts. Our baseline view remains to stay on the sidelines in the short term, but if Middle East tensions escalate or persist, expectations may change.
U.S. inflation expectations have generally eased since the end of March. The one-year, two-year, and ten-year breakeven inflation rates are 2.67%, 2.62%, and 2.40%, respectively, with limited recent volatility.
The labor market remains robust but with limited momentum. The latest initial jobless claims are at 215k, slightly above expectations.
After 90 days of ongoing conflict with Iran, oil prices remain high. Brent crude is around $95 per barrel, below the $115 peak but still about 35% higher than pre-conflict levels. If oil prices stay high or rise further within the year, the risks to global economic growth will become more apparent.
Key points for the next steps in U.S. stocks:
We maintain a constructive outlook on the stock market and believe the rally could further broaden. Small-cap stocks, value stocks, and emerging markets all have opportunities to outperform, while during pullbacks, investors should also consider growth-oriented allocations rather than chasing highs.
The S&P 500 has risen for eight consecutive weeks, with a total gain of 17%. Historical experience suggests that after such an eight-week rally, short-term returns may moderate, but the average return over the next 12 months remains attractive.
This rebound has been led by the "Mag 7" U.S. tech giants, but since the start of the year, value stocks and small caps have already outperformed significantly, indicating the market is gradually moving toward broader participation.
Earnings season has been strong. So far, 83% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded market expectations, with overall EPS up 27% year-over-year, especially notable in the information technology sector. Earnings forecasts for 2026 continue to be revised upward, supporting the stock market rally.
Emerging markets have performed remarkably well. Since the beginning of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen 25%, significantly outperforming U.S. stocks. Continued upward revisions in corporate earnings forecasts further reinforce a positive outlook for emerging markets.
The market is also highly attentive to potential IPOs from AI-related companies. Their financial disclosures and listing needs could serve as important windows into AI investment returns and commercialization pathways, potentially influencing overall market sentiment in both directions.
Overall assessment: The fundamental environment for stocks remains stable, especially across different market caps and styles in the U.S., as well as in emerging markets. Investors should reduce concentration risk, maintain diversified allocations, and optimize positioning during market consolidations.
Market sentiment analysis:
The latest AAII investor sentiment survey shows a slight rebound in bullish sentiment to 35.6%, while bearish sentiment has decreased to 42%. Overall, sentiment has not yet signaled a clear directional trend, and the market remains above the "Wall of Worry."
From historical experience, bull markets often end when investor sentiment reaches extreme euphoria. Despite recent significant gains, current sentiment levels suggest there is still some distance from true peak euphoria. $NAS100 ‌

——Information sourced from Franklin Templeton