$68 SOL, are you going to buy the dip?

ETF cumulative net inflows exceed $1 billion, yet the price has fallen from $90 to $68—institutions bought $1 billion, but the coin price dropped another 25%. Just now, it lost another 5% in 24 hours, with trading volume expanding to $3 billion.

First look at the surface: positive news keeps coming, but the price keeps falling.

SOL dropped from nearly $300 at its 2025 high to $68, a decline of over 77%. In the past 7 days, down 15%; in 30 days, down 22%. Market cap around $40 billion, 24-hour trading volume expanded to $3 billion. EMA moving averages are in a bearish alignment, price below EMA20/50, clear downtrend channel, RSI oversold but momentum still weak—downtrend isn’t over, don’t rush to catch the falling knife.

First thing: ETF inflows of $1 billion, why isn’t the price rising?

Solana spot ETF net inflows have exceeded $1-1.1 billion, with Bitwise, VanEck, Fidelity all buying. SOL hasn’t risen; instead, it fell from over $90 to $68.

The answer is simple: someone is selling, and they’re selling more aggressively than institutions are buying.

Early investors, staking unlocks, market makers—they’re taking advantage of ETF liquidity to offload to retail investors who are “catching the bag.”

Second thing: fundamentals haven’t changed, but macro conditions prevent gains.

Solana remains a high-performance Layer 1: high TPS, low fees, Alpenglow upgrade already in testing, aiming for sub-millisecond finality. Stablecoins, RWA, Mastercard/Visa partnerships are growing.

Federal Reserve interest rates are still stuck at 3.5-3.75%, with rate cut expectations delayed until 2027.

In a high-interest-rate environment, no one wants to hold high-risk assets heavily. As a high-beta coin, SOL drops 5% when BTC drops 1%; when BTC consolidates, SOL drifts downward.

Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously.

The $65-68 zone is a historically strong support area tested multiple times. Both 2024 and 2025 saw rebounds from here. Now it’s back.

It’s already in oversold territory, and a potential bottom divergence could form on the daily chart. But oversold doesn’t mean immediate rise; it can stay oversold for a long time.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself.

One side:

- ETF net inflows over $1 billion, strong institutional long-term holding intent

- Alpenglow upgrade + Firedancer landing soon, performance further improved

- Real growth in stablecoins, RWA, payment use cases

- Price dropped from $300 to $68, a 77% decline, valuation severely compressed

Other side:

- Early investors continue to reduce holdings, selling pressure exceeds buying

- Macro high-interest environment suppresses all risk assets

- Meme trend waned, DEX trading volume down 82%, short-term catalysts lacking

- Technicals show bearish alignment, no reversal signals

Key level: $68, now a life-and-death battle between bulls and bears.

Resistance above: $75-78 (first rebound hurdle) → $85-90 → $100+

Support below: $65-68 (final line of defense) → break below to $50-60

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to $65-68, with volume stabilization, then try small longs, stop-loss at $64, first target $75-78.

Conservative traders: wait until above $75 before considering.

Swing traders:

Abandon left-side bottom fishing. Wait for daily close above $78, confirm breakout of the downtrend channel, then enter, targeting $100-120.

Long-term believers:

If you truly believe in the Solana ecosystem, start dollar-cost averaging in the $60-70 range, buy a little each month, hold until late 2026. Target $150-250. But only if you can tolerate a further 30% paper loss.

SOL now is like ETH early 2024—

ETF approved, institutions bought, but price still fell. Everyone calls it “trash,” but a few months later, it doubles. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 #预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U $BTC $ETH $SOL