Peeking through the window, precise sniping? The two giants of the prediction market stage a corporate espionage battle

Author: Marc Vartabedian; Source: New York Post; Translation: Luffy

Prediction market platform Polymarket is delving into an investigation of a suspected competitor industrial espionage case. The platform supports users betting on sports events, weather, and geopolitical events. The company accuses its top rival Kalshi of using improper means to steal business information and copying products.

This New York-based prediction platform is led by 27-year-old CEO Shayne Coplan. They have compiled a verification document called the "Copycat Files," which includes over a dozen suspicious incidents: the launch times of several new Kalshi products, product designs, and Polymarket are highly similar, with release dates coincidentally and abnormally aligned.

Matthew Modabber, head of Polymarket's market team, stated in a phone interview that the coincidences are too numerous and abnormal, and that Kalshi's copying is highly purposeful, relentlessly encroaching on their business.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan spoke at the New York Stock Exchange on November 13 last year

The executive did not disclose further details, but sources familiar with the matter revealed that internal suspicion within the company points to two possibilities: first, there may be a mole inside Polymarket; second, there is an even more bizarre surveillance suspicion.

In recent months, several employees have suggested that Kalshi's investor Paradigm might be surveilling Polymarket's Manhattan downtown office across the street. Paradigm's office in SoHo, New York, faces directly at Polymarket's office, with floor-to-ceiling windows offering a clear view of the Polymarket workspace, possibly even observing employees' computer screens. Below are street-facing, trendy clothing stores and the high-end restaurant Balthazar.

Concerned about surveillance, Polymarket specifically applied dark heat-insulating film to their office windows this spring. An internal employee said: "The company has discussed the possibility of being watched, and the conclusion is that, given Kalshi's past behavior, this kind of espionage surveillance is entirely plausible."

When asked about the espionage allegations, Paradigm responded: "This claim is absurd and laughable." Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such responded: "The allegations are baseless and almost delusional. Polymarket is willing to spend effort on self-investigation, and we will continue to focus on refining our products."

Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour spoke at the Semafor World Economic Summit in Washington, D.C., on April 15

Polymarket's investigation focuses on two points: how Kalshi accurately obtained advance knowledge of their product launches and marketing schedules, and what details they acquired to efficiently replicate everything.

Over the past year, internal suspicion within the platform has been accumulating, and a physical event in February became a flashpoint. Polymarket had been preparing an offline convenience store event since November last year, scheduled to open on February 12 in Manhattan: the first 300 customers received free fresh ingredients, with contracts totaling $643.38k for venue, branding, and execution.

Just nine days before Polymarket's opening, Kalshi suddenly launched a similar free fresh food marketing event at a Manhattan Westside supermarket, distributing $50 grocery vouchers and promoting the slogan "Free Market," simultaneously launching predictions on whether egg prices would rise or fall that month.

An internal source at Polymarket said that Kalshi clearly intended to divert traffic from their event. Founder Shayne, who grew up in New York, considered this event particularly significant for the company, and being maliciously hijacked was very disappointing for the team.

Kalshi PR director Elisabeth Diana denied the copying allegations, stating that their own fresh food marketing plan had been in preparation for a long time and that they did not obtain insider information about their competitor's event schedule. Kalshi spokesperson Such added that both events were inspired by the New York City mayor's campaign platform promoting fresh food subsidies.

In addition, Polymarket secretly developed a perpetual futures trading tool in January this year, allowing users to bet on the real-time rise and fall of stocks and other assets without holding positions, with an official launch scheduled for April 21. However, just one hour before Polymarket announced the launch, tech media outlet The Information published an exclusive report citing anonymous sources, revealing that Kalshi was about to launch a similar perpetual futures product.

Polymarket's office is located in New York's fashion district, directly across from Paradigm

According to sources, Polymarket executives are very angry about this.

An insider said, "They seem to know we will announce the news that day, which is very suspicious."

Such explained that Kalshi's perpetual product had been in development since 2024. He believed The Information learned of this plan from a social media teaser posted by Kalshi on X (formerly Twitter) on April 13. The teaser showed a video that appeared to be an infinite loop of a spring toy, with the caption "Timeless," which in finance refers to perpetual futures contracts—contracts that never expire.

Polymarket's "Copycat Files" compile over a dozen official statements, social media posts, and product interface screenshots from both sides. The executives said these cases represent only a small fraction of all similar incidents.

One page in the archive records: on June 10, 2025, at 9:01 a.m., Polymarket announced a real-time crypto price prediction product on X, with nearly 24 million views; on the same day at 9 a.m., broker Webull announced the launch of an identical product in collaboration with Kalshi. The document notes: "Same day?"

But Such rebutted, stating that Kalshi had already launched a similar product before June 10, 2025, and that the same day was just the launch on Webull's platform. Polymarket's launch was later, so it is clear who copied whom.

There are also cases of advertising material overlaps. On Friday, August 22, last year, Polymarket ran ads on Meta targeting California for football betting, with prominent text "Hey, California"; just a weekend later, Kalshi launched nearly identical targeted ads with the same headline.

Such said, "'Hey, California' is a common promotional phrase, not protected by trademarks or copyrights. It is illogical to assume business espionage based on a single slogan."

The rivalry between the two prediction platforms has escalated continuously into 2026. U.S. lawmakers and regulators are tightening prediction market regulations amid industry concerns over insider trading and betting related to conflicts of war. Meanwhile, capital continues to pour heavily into the two leading platforms.

According to data from industry research firm PitchBook, Polymarket, founded in 2020, has raised approximately $2 billion in total funding, with a new round targeting a valuation of $15 billion; Kalshi, founded in 2018, has raised a total of $2.6 billion, with its latest valuation doubling to $22 billion since December last year.