【ETH Daily & Monthly Chart Market Analysis】

1. Overall Market Tone: Daily Wide Fluctuation
ETH is currently in a multi-month wide sideways trading range: 1740 - 2474.91.
This is a TTR (Narrow Range), with bulls and bears at a stalemate, and the direction is unclear.
The volume profile within this range shows:
POC (Most Traded Price): 2055.56
VAL (Value Area Low): 1905.08
VAH (Value Area High): 2253.56
Currently, the price has broken below the value area low, operating at the very bottom of the entire range.

2. Current Structure: Accelerated Phase After Breakout of Downtrend Channel
Since the low on February 6, ETH has formed a clear upward channel of 99 candles.
After a continuous decline on May 11, the price broke below the uptrend line and entered a narrow downward channel. Subsequently, the channel was broken again, leading to a rapid sell-off—by today (6.4), it has completed 24 daily downward candles.

3. Key Level: The Battle at 1740
Today at 16:40, the price pierced through the lower boundary of the range at 1740, and as of now, the daily candle has not closed.
This is not a moment to draw immediate conclusions.
The closing positions over the next two days will determine whether 1740 is a valid support or the start of a new downtrend.

4. Monthly Perspective:
Looking at the monthly candles near the bottom of the major range, May closed weakly, and early June continued the decline, approaching the monthly major range bottom at 1645.35.
5. Our Approach:
Wait and see, rather than betting on the success rate of a breakout—historically, it’s less than 20%. Entering a known low-probability area is a common mistake traders make.
Therefore, we choose:
*Not to attempt bottom-fishing on the left side
*Not to bet on the direction before breakout confirmation
*To wait at the range bottom for a reversal pattern

Only when price action provides clear signals of a bottom and reversal will we consider taking action.
Until then, staying on the sidelines is the best way to protect the account.
I will continue to monitor the closing structures over the next two days, and any changes will be updated here.
#ETH #行情分析 #交易纪律 # Structure determines direction