These days, some people are again talking about stablecoin supply and ETF inflows and outflows, feeling like just drawing a line can infer how the market will move... I'm a bit worried about this "correlation = causation" narrative. When there are more stablecoins, it could mean people are waiting to buy, or they might be moving to other places to park assets for risk hedging; when ETF funds come in, it doesn't necessarily mean they immediately flow onto the chain, not to mention the off-chain, market-making, and hedging activities that are involved in complex loops.

I thought that once new L1/L2 incentives are launched and TVL rises, the ecosystem would be considered "alive," but after browsing on-chain addresses and interactions, it's still the same familiar faces doing the mining, selling, and transferring... Long-time users' complaints are truly justified. Anyway, right now I prefer to focus on whether "new people are using it, and will they come back after using it," rather than being led by a few major indicators. That's all for now; next time I see some nice clouds on my way, I’ll come back with an update.