Today's topic is:

Crypto Winter ❄️ Deep Bear Market Initiation
Is the crypto market driven by narrative pricing or value pricing?
My answer is:

Currently: 90% narrative pricing

In the future: increasingly transitioning to value pricing

But it will never become purely value-based pricing

This sell-off was foreshadowed on a technical level long ago, but how deep it goes has already exceeded my understanding.
Before the sell-off, I mentioned that we had exited the black swan's technical phase, but I didn't know what would happen.
When mainstream exchanges, including Gate, connected to the US stock market, the sell-off began.
Many people don't understand what this means; you can watch my live stream from yesterday.
From this moment on, pure narrative pricing will bring disaster to the crypto market.

Over the past ten years:

The US stock market and the crypto market are two separate markets.

In the next ten years:

The US stock market and the crypto market will gradually become one market.

Because:

Same wallet
+
Same exchange
+
Same stablecoin

Can simultaneously purchase:

BTC
ETH
SOL
NVDA
TSLA
SPY
U.S. Treasury Bonds

This means:

The biggest competition in the future will no longer be:

BTC vs ETH

But:

US stocks vs cryptocurrencies

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1. Fundamental Difference

【US Stocks】

Buy:

Future cash flows of companies

For example:

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Value sources:

• AI chip sales
• Data center revenue
• Corporate profit growth

Apple (AAPL)

Value sources:

• iPhone sales
• Service revenue
• Stock buybacks

So:

US stocks are essentially productive assets.

--------------------------------------------------

【Cryptocurrencies】

Buy:

Network value

BTC value sources:

• Scarcity
• Consensus
• National reserve demand

ETH value sources:

• Stablecoin settlement
• DeFi
• RWA
• On-chain finance

SOL value sources:

• On-chain transactions
• High-frequency settlement
• User growth

So:

Cryptocurrencies are essentially network assets.

--------------------------------------------------

2. Why do institutions prefer US stocks?

Because:

US stocks are calculable.

For example:

NVDA

Calculable:

• Revenue
• Profit
• Growth rate
• PE valuation

BTC cannot be precisely calculated.

Relies more on:

How much future capital is willing to hold.

Therefore:

Certainty

US stocks > cryptocurrencies

--------------------------------------------------

3. Return comparison

Over the past decade:

【US Stocks】

Nasdaq Index:

Annualized about 15%-20%

Apple:

Annualized about 20%-25%

NVIDIA:

Long-term annualized return over 50%

--------------------------------------------------

【Cryptocurrencies】

BTC:

Long-term annualized about 50%-60%

ETH:

Higher historical returns

Some altcoins:

100x
1000x

--------------------------------------------------

Conclusion:

Return elasticity

Cryptocurrencies > US stocks

--------------------------------------------------

4. Risk comparison

【US Stocks】

Apple:

Maximum drawdown about 40%

Microsoft:

Maximum drawdown about 35%

NVIDIA:

Maximum drawdown about 60%

--------------------------------------------------

【Cryptocurrencies】

BTC:

Maximum drawdown about 80%

ETH:

Maximum drawdown about 90%

Altcoins:

Maximum drawdown about 99%

--------------------------------------------------

Conclusion:

Risk

Cryptocurrencies >>> US stocks

--------------------------------------------------

5. Why will future capital be redistributed?

Past:

Global capital
↓
Enter exchanges
↓
Can only buy coins

BTC
ETH
MEME
Altcoins

--------------------------------------------------

Future:

Global capital
↓
USDC
↓
Exchanges
↓
Can purchase:

BTC
ETH
SOL
NVDA
TSLA
SPY
U.S. Treasury Bonds

--------------------------------------------------

So the market will start asking:

Why buy your coins?

And not buy NVIDIA?

Why buy your coins?

And not buy U.S. Treasuries?

Why buy your coins?

And not buy the S&P 500?

--------------------------------------------------

This is the question all altcoins must answer in the future.

--------------------------------------------------

6. What does the US really want to do?

Many believe:

The US supports crypto.

--------------------------------------------------

But from a capital strategic perspective:

The US prefers:

Global capital
↓
Stablecoins
↓
On-chain finance
↓
On-chain US stocks
↓
US assets

--------------------------------------------------

The US least wants to see:

Global capital
↓
USDT
↓
MEME
↓
Shitcoins
↓
Continuing to hype air

--------------------------------------------------

The US most hopes to see:

Global capital
↓
USDC
↓
Coinbase
↓
On-chain US stocks
↓
US capital markets

--------------------------------------------------

Essentially:

Crypto Capital

Is being directed as

American Capital

--------------------------------------------------

7. The assets that will truly be valuable in the future

BlackRock won't ask:

Which coin will rise 10x?

--------------------------------------------------

They will only ask:

In the next ten years,

Who can absorb the most value flow?

--------------------------------------------------

BTC

Absorbs the value of digital gold

--------------------------------------------------

ETH

Absorbs the value of on-chain finance

--------------------------------------------------

SOL

Absorbs the value of on-chain transactions

--------------------------------------------------

USDC

Absorbs the value of digital dollars

--------------------------------------------------

NVDA

Absorbs the value of the AI industry

--------------------------------------------------

Microsoft

Absorbs the value of AI applications

--------------------------------------------------

What is truly valuable is not concepts,

But the entry point of value flow.

--------------------------------------------------

8. Projection of capital structure after 2030

First layer (core assets):

U.S. tech stocks

NVDA
MSFT
GOOG
AMZN
META

About 40%

--------------------------------------------------

Second layer:

BTC
ETH
SOL

About 30%

--------------------------------------------------

Third layer:

RWA
On-chain government bonds
On-chain money market funds

About 20%

--------------------------------------------------

Fourth layer:

MEME
Shitcoins
Pure narrative altcoins

About 10% or less

--------------------------------------------------

9. Final conclusion

Over the past decade:

The US stock market and the crypto market are two worlds.

--------------------------------------------------

In the next decade:

The US stock market and the crypto market will become one market.

Because:

Same wallet

Same stablecoin

Same exchange

Can buy all assets simultaneously.

--------------------------------------------------

When assets are placed on the same shelf,

The market will ultimately ask only one question:

"Over the next ten years, how much real value can you create?"

US stocks answer with profits.

BTC answers with reserve value.

ETH answers with financial networks.

SOL answers with transaction networks.

And most altcoins without cash flow, users, or value capture ability,

Will face real value competition for the first time.

This is also the deep logic behind the US promoting stablecoins, on-chain securities, on-chain US stocks, and RWA:

Not to keep funds forever in shitcoins,

But to enable global capital to ultimately flow into US assets through on-chain financial systems.