Oil prices approaching the hundred-dollar mark, who is pricing in BTC's tail risk?

Both Iran and the U.S. have paused negotiations, missile exchanges, and airports in three countries have halted flights; this is the closest to a comprehensive escalation this year.
Brent crude is only about 3% away from $100, with tail risk pricing scarce; once it truly breaks through the hundred-dollar threshold, the bulls and bears will quickly shift to inflation panic.
The market has already priced in a "war and negotiation" scenario as normal, but if the conflict truly exceeds a limited threshold, the risk premium response will be even more intense.
Two days ago, $BTC fell below $67k, with 270k traders liquidated, leading macro assets to undergo a broad sell-off beforehand.
Instead of asking whether BTC has already priced in tail risk, it’s better to ask: capital is mass withdrawing from Bitcoin, which is already a pre-emptive valuation.
If oil prices further spiral out of control, inflation surges, and monetary policy continues to tighten, the current $60k-level BTC is likely just a short-term low rather than a stage bottom.
Pricing in tail risk requires widespread capital withdrawal to realize, and this is already happening, while more extreme scenarios have not yet been fully accounted for.
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