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BTC Volatility Review (May 18 - June 1)
BTC/USD declined 5.5% ($77,000 -> $72,750), ETH/USD declined 6.6% ($2,120 -> $1,980)
BTC/USD spot technical outlook: Over the past few weeks, the upward momentum has weakened, and prices have fallen below some local support levels. However, actual volatility remains relatively low, still consistent with a more stable and ultimately more constructive path. Below current levels, a break below $71,000 would open space below $68,000 (already occurred), with the next downside target at $60,000. But since current positions are noticeably lighter than before, the probability of this scenario happening seems lower. On the upside, breaking above $82,000 would open further upward space; however, the current pattern/structure suggests that a larger rally is expected to occur in late summer or Q4. We remain constructive in the long term, but expect the price action in the coming weeks to be relatively flat unless geopolitical tensions escalate further.
Market themes: Although the US and Iran have not officially announced an agreement in recent weeks, news headlines have remained optimistic. The latest reports indicate both countries have agreed to extend a 60-day ceasefire "but still require Trump’s approval." Meanwhile, China has been depleting its strategic oil reserves rather than buying at high prices, which has somewhat suppressed global oil demand. This, combined with positive news flow gradually improving, has caused oil prices to retreat by 20% from their highs. At the same time, investors seem to be under-allocating to equities on a fundamental basis, considering the mixed news environment, while stock markets are rebounding quickly from lows. Therefore, even if the final agreement is not yet confirmed, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to hit new highs. It’s reasonable to infer that once the agreement is confirmed, as the "uncertainty premium" diminishes, the market should see further upside. Meanwhile, major crypto assets (BTC, ETH) ETFs have mostly experienced outflows over the past two weeks, likely driven by opportunity cost-driven rotation: funds are flowing from these ETFs into stocks and also into HYPE (which has attracted significant attention in crypto, understandable). Gold has also seen a notable correction from recent highs, as upward pressure remains, and investors are shifting funds toward upcoming IPOs and stock-related trades. Our baseline scenario remains that Bitcoin and gold will see significant upside later this year; however, during summer, we should expect mainly consolidation (likely with limited participation in stock market rallies).
BTC$ ATM Implied Volatility: (May 18, Hong Kong time, 4 PM -> June 1, Hong Kong time, 4 PM)
Despite the spot price falling from above $80,000 to a low of $72,500 over the past two weeks, actual volatility has remained relatively low most of the time. The main exceptions are weekend liquidity thinness causing volatility and repeated headlines related to US-Iran news triggering market moves. Realized volatility has stayed below 35–36 vol, with some trading days only at 20–25 vol. This has caused front-end daily implied volatility to drop into the 30–35 vol range; meanwhile, the curve’s longer-dated premiums continue to be squeezed, especially as summer months approach. Overall, implied volatility has trended downward over the past two weeks. The volatility curve’s term structure has flattened at the front end. Given the current implied volatility levels, breakeven points are relatively low, and with prices around $73,000 appearing "more interesting," there is some buy-side demand on both sides of the spot. The longer-dated part of the curve appears steeper, but this can be somewhat deceptive visually due to seasonal factors and market demand for volatility related to mid-term elections in Q4, with maturities in December 2026 and March 2027 naturally supported.
BTC$ Skewness/Kurtosis:
Skewness sensitivity to spot direction has decreased. As spot prices decline in an orderly fashion, skewness has even started to rise from deep downward levels seen weeks ago. At current price levels, demand for deeper out-of-the-money puts (below $65,000) has not yet appeared, indicating lighter spot positions or lower hedging needs. On the other side, the market continues to see abundant supply of call volatility from covered/hedging sellers. For example, last Friday, about 5,000 BTC notional of July $80,000 calls were sold.
Therefore, with these ongoing capital flows, upside volatility remains suppressed. Kurtosis prices are generally sideways or trending downward, consistent with the overall range-bound price action and limited out-of-the-money option demand outside the range. A few localized directional trades are exceptions; but even then, due to the overall compression of the price range, many of these trades are executed via call spreads and put spreads.
Wishing you successful trading next week!