Brothers, today’s market, first clarify the blame.

Don’t pull MSTR out to parade every time it dips.
Saylor sold 32 BTC, which is indeed annoying.
But if you say this continuous one-way move was caused by his 32 coins crashing out, that’s a bit unfair to the old man.
Can 32 BTC cause such a trend?
Then the market is too fragile.
The real driver pushing Bitcoin higher is the ETF that’s been bleeding out.
How did it rise earlier?
Continuous net inflows into ETFs pushed BTC from below all the way up past 82k in a month. At that time, everyone thought the institutions were here, the wind was blowing, and even pigs could fly for a while.

And how did it fall now?
The opposite.
Continuous net outflows from ETFs for half a month have been pressing BTC down all the way. Now, BTC ETF outflows have exceeded $1.5 billion, and ETH ETFs are also flowing out around $500 million. Big funds are no longer supporting the market, retail traders are shouting “rebound quickly,” but does it help?
No.
Even if you shout until your throat is sore, ETFs won’t turn back, and the market acts like it can’t hear you.
So the core of this move isn’t MSTR, it’s the ETF.
MSTR is just adding salt to the wound.
ETFs are the ones bleeding out continuously.

And speaking of the bloodsucking in the US stock market.

Recently, many people say money is flowing into US stocks, but that’s only half true.
It’s not the entire US stock market grabbing money from crypto, but certain sectors within US stocks that can tell stories and push for a rally.
AI, storage, Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk—these areas have volatility, narratives, and freshness. Plus, exchanges are starting to list real US stocks and US stock-mapped tokens, making it easier for crypto users to play the US stock game.

This is quite awkward.
In the past, everyone watched the “local dog” take off in the crypto world.
Now some are watching Nvidia pop champagne next door.

Meanwhile, your BTC is still leaking oil, so why would they come back to lend you a hand?
The bigger change is actually in the trading arena.
It’s not just US stocks attracting crypto funds; traditional exchanges like CME and Cboe are also being impacted. Cboe’s weekly decline was severe, and CME also hit near a 52-week low. This shows it’s not just a problem with one market, but a reallocation of “trading flow” across the entire space.

Who has new ways to play, who gains the flow.
Who only has old scripts, who will sit on the sidelines.
This is the most real market right now.

Adding an external variable: oil prices and US-Iran tensions.
WTI is back around 95, and as the conflict line tightens, risk assets will feel uncomfortable. High oil prices increase inflation pressure; chaotic situations make spot funds more cautious.
In this environment, do you expect big funds to rush in to buy the dip in BTC?
They’re not here to be charity in crypto.

So, I break down this decline into five points:

ETF outflows are the main culprit.
MSTR is just a side blow.
Strong US stock sectors are attracting flow.
Traditional exchanges are also being challenged by new trading models.
Oil prices and US-Iran tensions make risk appetite more timid.
When these five factors stack up, BTC will be hard to hold steady.

Can we look at 65K?
We can watch, but don’t rush to stamp it as the bottom.
I don’t want to say “65K is the bottom” now. That’s too cheap; anyone can say it.
What really matters is:
Is there anyone willing to buy here?
Can it hold steady?
Is there strength in the rebound?
Are ETF outflows slowing down?

If it can stabilize around 65K and ETF outflows don’t continue wildly, this could be a deep washout.
If ETF is still bleeding, 65K is just a temporary pause, and support will need to be found further down.
Don’t be fooled by the phrase “it’s fallen too much, it should rebound.”
There’s no “should” in the market.
There’s only “whether money is coming in or not.”

That’s all for today.