Market fluctuations, sharing some thoughts.

The source of this market panic was MicroStrategy's first sale of spot holdings. But upon closer inspection, a crypto leader holding over 800,000 Bitcoin actually only moved a few dozen. The selling pressure itself is minimal, yet it triggered a collective stampede. This is the market's nature: once panic arises, everyone follows the wave, and emotions spread faster than facts. This irrational selling leaves more room for Bitcoin to decline.

Technically, 65,000 is a critical dividing line between bulls and bears, and it has not been effectively broken below yet. If this level is lost, the 60,000 support below may struggle to hold, and the downward space could further open up. For Ethereum, the range of 1888 to 1800 is key; if it can hold steady here, the situation remains manageable; if not, momentum will weaken in the short term.

Looking ahead, mid-month is a crucial point. Jerome Powell, after taking office as Federal Reserve Chair, will deliver his first public speech. This is his first official statement since assuming the role, and its significance is self-evident. The market is waiting—waiting for his wording, attitude, and the tone he sets on inflation and interest rate paths. Before that, large funds are likely to remain cautious, and the market may drift into consolidation or slight decline. If his speech signals something beyond market expectations, whether hawkish or dovish, it could trigger a new round of directional volatility.

Regarding MicroStrategy's recent spot sale, it’s not entirely a bad thing. From a longer-term perspective, it actually breaks the previous correlation between coin prices and stock prices, which was a positive or negative spiral. When the market experiences sharp fluctuations in the future, MicroStrategy will have more room and reason to step in and provide support, which could be a long-term positive.

Finally, let’s talk about the rhythm for the next few months. The expectation of a rate cut in September is becoming clearer. Based on market habits of front-running, positive news often starts to ferment in August. July might instead see a wave of downward pressure to shake out weak hands. Looking at it this way, June is likely to be characterized by wide-range sideways consolidation, building momentum and testing investor patience.

The wind hasn't moved, the banner hasn't moved, but people's minds are shifting. Instead of being driven by panic, it’s better to stay calm and observe. Wait for key levels to be confirmed, wait for the mid-month resolution, and let time gradually reveal the direction. $BTC $ETH ‌ ‌