#BTC触底66000 Ten Years of Holding Crypto Custodian 3650 Days | Day 86 of Check-in | BTC/ETH Decline Logic + Bottom Point Analysis

1. The four main reasons for this round of continuous decline

1. Institutional belief breakdown: MicroStrategy’s sale of 32 BTC sparks sentiment
MicroStrategy breaks the long-standing rule of only holding and not selling, selling 32 BTC (only 0.0038% of holdings), which appears as a small financial adjustment on the books, but shatters the market’s long-term HODL belief, causing funds to follow the trend and flee risk, leading to an immediate market crash at opening.
2. Continuous large redemptions of US ETFs, buying power dries up
BTC spot ETFs have experienced net outflows exceeding $3.45 billion over 11 consecutive trading days, with BlackRock’s IBIT losing $440 million in a single day. Institutional long-term funds continue to withdraw, losing key support funds; ETH ETF fundraising volume is less than 15% of BTC, with weaker capital absorption and deeper declines.
3. Hawkish Federal Reserve + geopolitical conflicts double negative news
US PCE inflation exceeds target, market’s full-year rate cut expectations significantly cool down, high interest rates suppress the valuation of interest-free cryptocurrencies; Middle East geopolitical unrest causes funds to shift to gold as a safe haven, leading to a market-wide sell-off of risk assets and synchronized pressure on cryptocurrencies.
4. Leverage liquidations and cascade crashes
Short-term declines trigger billions of dollars in long liquidations, creating a vicious cycle of mass liquidations and selling, with the fear index dropping into extreme fear territory. Short-term bottom-fishing funds are trapped, further amplifying the downward space.

2. Key support levels at different tiers (short-term + mid-term)

BTC Key Support

- Short-term weak support: 66,000-66,300 (near current price), if broken, follow the trend downward to the next support
- First strong bottom: $65,000, a previous dense trading zone and institutional phased accumulation reference level, the first zone to stop the fall
- Extreme mid-term bottom: $62,000-$63,000, the ultimate support of the bull trend line, only touched during extreme panic

ETH Key Support

- Short-term weak support: 1830-1840 (current breakdown point)
- First strong bottom: 1780-1800, the key defense at the lower Bollinger band on the monthly chart
- Extreme mid-term bottom: $1700, the bottom line of this round’s upward cycle

3. Practical operational ideas | Risk control for thousandfold challenge

Short-term oversold with slight technical rebound, but the bearish trend has not reversed. Do not hold heavy positions for bottom fishing or add large positions; allocate small positions in BTC below $65,000 and ETH below $18,000, relying on tidal trading with five-level risk control to manage holdings.