Anthropic’s IPO momentum is quite interesting: the odds of a slump in September look higher, but it still stays strong by the end of the year—so it seems SEC scrutiny is the biggest variable.

Polymarket shows that the probability of Anthropic going public before September 30 has dropped to 30%, down 37% in 24 hours; the probability of going public before December 31 is 89%. Anthropic announced that it has secretly filed for an IPO in the United States, stating that the listing will depend on SEC review and market conditions, with plans to begin the listing process as early as this fall. The issuance scale and terms have not been disclosed, and it may occur earlier than OpenAI.