hot take but i just don’t think we’re in an ai bubble. ai capex isn’t levered and most importantly we are limited by the literal laws of physics in terms of scaling:

> you can raise all the capital in the world ai capex but you can’t spend it. construction is slow, regulations are blockers, literal power grids can’t keep up.
all of this needs to be unblocked, that will take time.
- google’s $80B equity raise is just creative financial book-keeping. 30B is used to offset taxes, $40B vs the $180B they committed is not a levered position. they have $126B on the balance sheet.
- sk hynix announced they’ll double memory capacity in <5 years and that STILL won’t be enough. constrained by atoms.
- the anthropic and openai IPOs would be worrisome if they weren’t also printing huge revenue numbers. the demand is clearly there and growing at a pace they can’t keep up.
it is not a coincidence that the smartest companies and minds in the world are spending their balance sheet in pursuit of building AI.
the ROI is pretty damn clear.