S2F model inventor PlanB warns: The true bottom of Bitcoin has not yet formed, with over a 50% chance of retesting $53k.

According to the latest post released on X platform by well-known Bitcoin anonymous analyst PlanB, despite Bitcoin (BTC) closing at $73,568 in May, short-term market data indicate that the true bottom has not yet formed. He personally believes there is over a 50% chance that Bitcoin will continue to decline, and even considers the possibility of retesting the 200-week moving average (around $61,000) or the realized price (around $53k).
(Background: Bitcoin plunges below $68k! Coinbase BTC negative premium continues to widen, US buying momentum completely stalls)
(Additional context: Standard Chartered Bank: MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin marks a turning point for gold! Predicts ETH will start surpassing BTC from now on, aiming for $4,000 by year-end)

Famous for proposing the Bitcoin "Stock-to-Flow (S2F)" scarcity model, Dutch anonymous quantitative analyst PlanB recently released his latest market insights. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s closing price in May was $73,568, but currently the market is in an extreme split of 50/50 on the future trend. Some investors believe that the $60,000 level in February was the bottom of this correction, while others worry that the bear market will continue to extend.

However, based on current short-term quantitative data, PlanB offers a more cautious judgment. He admits that the data shows the bottom has not yet been seen, and he believes there is a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin will continue to move lower.

Bitcoin closed May at $73,568

Market is 50/50 on if February $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue.

IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probability that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k). pic.twitter.com/4uxdxH5oGA

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 1, 2026

Short-term bearish: possible retest of 200wma and realized price

PlanB further quantified the potential retracement magnitude. He pointed out that if this decline continues, Bitcoin could break below the 200-week moving average (200wma), which is currently around $61,000; it might even further decline to the "realized price," reflecting overall on-chain holdings costs, currently about $53,000.

This statement has sparked lively discussion in the community, with some replies recalling his past prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and questioning the accuracy of his S2F model.

Emphasizes "personal opinion": long-term model, short-term indicators

In response to community skepticism, PlanB reiterated that this recent warning of decline is his personal opinion (IMO), not a strict forecast from the S2F model. He has always been optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value, and pointed out that the core of the S2F model mainly explains the long-term relationship between "scarcity" and "asset value"; for short-term price fluctuations, other technical and on-chain indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages (MA), realized price, and profit address ratio should be considered.