#ArthurHayes看好HYPE超越SOL

Arthur Hayes Makes a Bold Bet: Why Can HYPE Outperform SOL?
1. Bold Bet: $100k Betting HYPE Will Outperform SOL by Year-End
As Hyperliquid's native token HYPE breaks through $75 to hit a new all-time high, the intense competition over "who will be crowned the liquidity king" is reaching a critical turning point.
B～i~tMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently dropped a bombshell on social media: he firmly believes that HYPE will at least surpass SOL in this bull market. He publicly challenged Solana long-term supporter and Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani: with a $100k donation to charity as a stake, betting that HYPE's performance before the end of this year will exceed any of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap. Samani accepted the challenge, choosing SOL as his opponent.
This wager is not just a personal "gentleman’s duel," but also a direct clash between two value narratives in the crypto market.
2. Hayes’s Core Logic: Threefold Advantages Lock in HYPE
Hayes’s bullish thesis is not just empty talk but built on a rigorous structural analysis.
(1) Technical Positioning: A "Trade-Specific Chain" Built for Derivatives
Hyperliquid is not a general-purpose DEX on a universal blockchain but has its own dedicated L1 mainnet designed specifically for low-latency perpetual contract execution, offering sub-second finality. This "trade-specific" positioning allows it to provide significantly lower fees than centralized exchanges—perpetual contract taker fees are only 0.045%, maker fees 0.015%—successfully attracting professional trading volume rather than retail speculation. The CFTC has also recently approved Hyperliquid to offer perpetual contracts, further opening institutional access.
(2) Business Model: Revenue-Driven Token Economy
Unlike many projects that rely on narrative support for valuation, Hyperliquid has proven its self-sustaining ability with data. Data shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $57.9 million in application revenue over the past 30 days, surpassing Ethereum to become the second-largest application revenue project in blockchain. The protocol’s total revenue exceeds $1.16 billion, with nominal trading volume reaching $26 trillion over the past year.
Most importantly, its revenue mechanism: over 97% of protocol fees are used for market buybacks and token burns, with about 14% of the supply already repurchased from circulation. This means that the more active the platform’s trading, the stronger the buyback and burn, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of "revenue growth → supply tightening → price appreciation."
(3) Institutional Catalysis: ETF Channel Opened
HYPE’s spot ETF began trading on May 12, with cumulative fund inflows exceeding $109 million as of June 1. Asset management giant Grayscale even states that HYPE is "undervalued," with its research director noting that, based on P/E ratio, HYPE’s current PE is about 14, significantly lower than Coinbase (44) and Robinhood (37).
3. Data Comparison: HYPE Approaching SOL’s Core Territory
From market cap and revenue data, HYPE is rapidly closing the gap with SOL:
· Valuation crossover: Hyperliquid’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) officially surpassed Solana in late May, reaching about $56 billion;
· Protocol revenue surpassing: In 7-day protocol fees, Hyperliquid slightly led SOL with $12.6 million versus $11.8 million, a crossover that was considered nearly impossible 12 months ago;
· Market performance disparity: As of early June, HYPE has risen about 198% since the start of the year, while SOL has fallen about 36% over the same period.
SOL is currently under unprecedented price pressure: since October 2025, SOL has experienced eight consecutive months of decline, dropping from a high of around $220–$230 to about $81, evaporating roughly $78 billion in market value. While SOL still has a broader ecosystem (covering consumer apps, payments, NFTs, etc.) and institutional integrations with Visa, PayPal, and Stripe, its main battlefield—high-value DeFi derivatives trading—is facing strong pressure from HYPE.
4. Reversal Possibility: Can SOL Hold Its Ground?
HYPE is not without risks. Its "trade-specific chain" model also introduces significant concentration risk—if market sentiment for perpetual contracts weakens or lower-cost competitors emerge, Hyperliquid’s moat could narrow more than SOL’s. Additionally, most of HYPE’s supply remains unvested, posing potential selling pressure in the future.
The biggest counterattack for SOL lies in its institutional channels. SOL’s spot ETF has attracted about $1.13 billion in net inflows, a trend that has continued for over nine weeks without pause. If institutional funds keep supporting, SOL might withstand downward price pressure and wait for an ecosystem revival.
Arthur Hayes’s $100k bet is not just entertainment but a judgment based on quantifiable data. Hyperliquid’s threefold advantages—its dedicated L1 architecture, revenue-driven buyback mechanism, and ETF channel—are creating a structural impact on Solana’s dominance. The outcome of this race will not only influence the price trajectories of these two tokens but also serve as a crucial test of valuation logic in the crypto asset space.