Wintermute's latest analysis: The crypto market and US stocks are "seriously decoupling"! Capital is rushing into AI, skipping Bitcoin, but long-term big investors are quietly building positions OTC.

The U.S. stock market is celebrating wildly, while the crypto world remains lonely? Top market maker Wintermute released its latest market report today (June 2), revealing an extreme shift in the current capital landscape. As the S&P 500 index hits a nine-week rally driven by strong AI earnings reports, Bitcoin spot ETFs suffer a record $1.4 billion outflow, leading to BTC weakness and ETH dropping below $2,000. The report warns that the crypto market, lacking fundamental support, is being forced to bear the macroeconomic risks of inflation alone. However, amidst the crisis, there are still opportunities: long-term large holders are quietly entering through OTC, and application tokens led by HYPE are surging against the trend, foreshadowing a new paradigm shift in the crypto space.
(Background: Wintermute warns of an $80k bubble: real short squeeze, spot trading volume at a two-year low, current risk-reward is poor)
(Additional context: Major crypto market maker Wintermute announces entry into "prediction markets"! Serving as liquidity provider, offering institutional-grade bid-ask quotes)

Table of Contents

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• The Two Extremes: U.S. stocks celebrate AI, crypto market "skips" the party
• Macroeconomic Clouds: Oil prices fall, core inflation remains "sticky"
• A Glimmer in Darkness: Long-term holders accumulate, HYPE leads a paradigm shift

The correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional U.S. stocks experienced its most dramatic decoupling this year by mid-2026.

Global top crypto market makers and OTC giant Wintermute released a new market update today (June 2, 2026), providing an in-depth analysis of the complex tug-of-war between macroeconomics, the U.S. stock frenzy, and crypto capital outflows.

The Two Extremes: U.S. stocks celebrate AI, crypto market "skips" the party

The report first highlights the most prominent "decoupling" phenomenon in the market. In May, the S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week (up 1.9% for the month), with the Nasdaq soaring 8%. Wintermute pointed out that capital is shifting from semiconductor hardware to software sectors (such as Dell, Salesforce), as AI demand has shifted from "promises" to "actual earnings reports."

In contrast, the crypto market completely missed this risk-on capital frenzy:

• Mainstream coins weaken: Bitcoin (BTC) dropped into the $72,000 range (closing around $73,500 at month-end), Ethereum (ETH) even fell below $2,000, with both declining over 4% in the month.
• Record outflows from ETFs: BTC spot ETFs experienced about $1.4 billion in net outflows, setting the longest redemption streak since product launch; ETH ETFs also lost $240 million. Even the largest corporate holder, Strategy, has started selling coins, intensifying the bearish sentiment among native crypto investors.

Wintermute’s analysis indicates that the U.S. stock market can ignore unfavorable interest rate environments because of the support from real AI earnings reports; without this protective layer, the crypto market is fully exposed to macroeconomic risks, being ruthlessly "skipped" by Wall Street capital — a typical bear market behavior.

Macroeconomic Clouds: Oil prices fall, core inflation remains "sticky"

On the macroeconomic front, the situation is equally contradictory and tugging. In April, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) rose to 3.8%, and core PCE increased to 3.3%, indicating inflation remains hot.

| Macro Indicators | | --- | Current Situation and Wintermute’s Expectations | | --- | --- | | International oil prices | Affected by Middle East ceasefire, Brent crude oil plummeted 20% in a month to $91, likely to lower "overall inflation" in the coming months. | | Core inflation (Core PCE) | Energy prices have not yet transmitted to services and wages, so core inflation remains stubborn. AI demand is also keeping the economy heated. | | U.S. Treasuries and rate hike expectations | 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 4.45%. The December rate hike probability dropped to 35-40% (not entirely ruled out). Q3 may rekindle concerns of "stagflation." |

A Glimmer in Darkness: Long-term holders accumulate, HYPE leads a paradigm shift

Despite short-term macro and capital outflow pressures, Wintermute remains "cautiously optimistic" about the long-term outlook. The report reveals that long-term holders are already seeing current prices as highly attractive over the next 18 months, quietly building positions via OTC using TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price). This appears more like a "cycle reset" rather than a bubble burst.

Additionally, the altcoin sector is experiencing a clear "paradigm shift." The two previous bull markets were dominated by "underlying infrastructure" tokens, which have performed modestly, but niche tokens focused on privacy, AI, and perpetual contracts—"application and platform" tokens—are surging against the trend. The most eye-catching is Hyperliquid ($HYPE), which has broken through $70 and decoupled from the broader market. Grayscale has raised up to $115 million in seed funding for its ETF, and even Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO has publicly praised it. Wintermute predicts that if dApps truly become the winners of the next cycle, the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap will undergo a massive reshuffle.