#Polymarket每日热点


For Polymarket's "Which companies will go IPO before 2027?" event, I would treat it as a probability-weighted investment game rather than simply tracking market prices.

Current market predictions are roughly as follows: SpaceX 95%, Discord 60%, Anthropic 55%, OpenAI 37%.

My Company Probability Position
SpaceX 99% YES
Anthropic 80% YES
Discord 65% YES
OpenAI 20% NO

Why?

1. SpaceX — the strongest YES

This is no longer speculation. SpaceX has already filed for an IPO and is actively preparing for it, including a directed stock program and IPO share allocation plans. Reuters and TechCrunch have reported concrete IPO preparations.

My view: 99% YES

The market's approximately 95% margin leaves a slight advantage for YES if the process proceeds normally.

2. Anthropic — Top Value YES

Anthropic has secretly filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026. This is a significant milestone because companies rarely file secretly without a serious intention of going public. Many reports point to a potential 2026 IPO.

My Opinion: 80% YES

Given that the SEC filing is already in place, a market price of around 55% seems very low.

3. Discord — Slightly YES

Discord has long been considered one of the most IPO-ready consumer tech companies. It has scale, recurring revenue, and private market investors seeking liquidity.

My Opinion: 65% YES

The market is around 60%, which seems roughly fair. I would only take a small position.

4. OpenAI — Best NO

OpenAI remains the most complex case.

Reasons:

* Extremely unusual governance structure. * Very large amount of private funding available.

* No immediate need for public capital.

* Management has repeatedly emphasized long-term artificial general intelligence (AGI) development compared to traditional public market timelines.

Meanwhile, competitors like Anthropic are already moving towards IPO applications.

My opinion: 20% YES / 80% NO

If the market prices OpenAI at 37% YES, I would prefer NO.

Portfolio Allocation

If I had 100 units:

* 45 units → Anthropic YES
* 35 units → SpaceX YES
* 15 units → OpenAI NO
* 5 units → Discord YES

Expected outcome ranking:

1. SpaceX — IPO before 2027
2. Anthropic — IPO before 2027
3. Discord — likely but less certain
4. OpenAI — least likely of the four

The most mispriced position I find is Anthropic YES, because despite a confidential IPO application already being disclosed, the market is still close to a coin toss.
POLYMARKET-14.45%
SPCX-0.8%
SPACEX-1.15%
ANTHROPIC-3.52%
post-image
post-image
IPOs before 2027?
SpaceX
1.01x
99%
OpenAI
1.30x
77%
$43.35K Vol+32 more
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 10
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
Falcon_Official
· 2h ago
thanks for sharing about crypto update
Reply0
HelalChowdhury
· 2h ago
To The Moon 🌕
Reply0
HelalChowdhury
· 2h ago
LFG 🔥
Reply0
FatYa888
· 3h ago
Get in quickly!🚗
View OriginalReply0
HighAmbition
· 3h ago
good information 👍👍👍👍👍
Reply0
BlackBullion_Alpha
· 4h ago
Ape In 🚀
Reply0
BlackBullion_Alpha
· 4h ago
HODL Tight 💪 💪
View OriginalReply0
Amelia1231
· 4h ago
Steadfast HODL💎
View OriginalReply0
ybaser
· 4h ago
2026 GOGOGO 👊
Reply0
ybaser
· 4h ago
To The Moon 🌕
Reply0
View More
  • Pinned