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Can the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement? The probability of "Yes" drops by 23.0 percentage points

MeNews
ME News Report, April 19 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the market assessment regarding "Can the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 22, 2026?", the probability of the "Yes" option has decreased from 42.5% to 19.5%, a single-day drop of 23.0 percentage points.
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DustCollector7
· 1h ago
The phrase "permanent peace" is inherently absurd.
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0xLateDiner
· 2h ago
It feels like institutions are manipulating the probability of distribution.
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MetalFrameBookPageCross
· 4h ago
19.5% buy Yes, the odds are actually quite attractive
View OriginalReply0
BorrowedSun
· 7h ago
Peace agreement? First, ask whether Israel agrees or not.
View OriginalReply0
YieldGoblin
· 7h ago
Where does this data come from? Polymarket?
View OriginalReply0
MemeFisher
· 7h ago
It's still early in 2026; there are too many uncertainties in between.
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MosaicBow
· 7h ago
42→19, brothers who bought the dip, are you doing well?
View OriginalReply0
RiskParityKid
· 7h ago
The prediction market is just an emotion amplifier; don't take it seriously.
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VinylRadioProphecy
· 7h ago
19.5% still feels inflated; the actual chance of a real fight is higher.
View OriginalReply0
YieldYuki
· 7h ago
A 23-point drop in a single day; this volatility is even more exciting than the crypto world.
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