Expected interest rate surge + Iran-U.S. fallout, BTC plunges 71,500, liquidity tightening is the main cause

In the early morning of June 2, 2026, the crypto market faced a double macro shock: Bitcoin rapidly dropped from $74,000 to $71,500, a nearly 3% decline in 24 hours; Ethereum barely held above $2,000, mainstream coins fell across the board, with 145k traders liquidated and a total liquidation amount of $523 million, concentrated long positions being cleared.

1. Economic data shocks: recalibration of rate hike expectations

- U.S. April core PCE 3.8%, hitting a new high in 2023, inflation stickiness exceeds expectations;
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- 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 5% (highest since 2007), market begins pricing in a 25bp rate hike in July;
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- CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: 98.4% probability of holding rates steady in June, but the probability of a rate hike in July rises to 8.4%;
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- Wall Street heavyweight Yardeni directly warns: The Fed must raise rates in July, or the bond market will forcibly push yields higher.

2. Geopolitical risks escalate: Iran suspends negotiations, oil prices jump

- Iran announces suspension of communication with the U.S., threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran-U.S. détente expectations shattered;
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- Oil prices rise accordingly, further increasing inflationary pressure, leaving the Federal Reserve no room to cut rates;
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- Trump’s previous optimistic statements about “Iran-U.S. nearing an agreement” are discredited, safe-haven sentiment recedes, risk appetite collapses.

3. Impact on crypto

- Short-term: dollar strengthening + soaring U.S. Treasury yields + rising rate hike expectations = BTC under pressure to decline;
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- Medium-term: if inflation persists and the Fed restarts rate hikes, BTC is likely to test the $68,000–70,000 range;
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- Capital: Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows for 10 consecutive days, totaling nearly $3 billion, institutions are “fleeing.”

Operational suggestions

- Reduce positions to 30–40%, avoid heavy leverage;
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- Short-term support: 70,500–71,000, cut positions decisively if broken;
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- Prioritize mainstream coins, stay away from high-leverage contracts (extreme liquidation risk). #美伊谈判博弈