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FNG 23, extreme fear. BTC four consecutive down days, dropping from 82k to 71k, wiping out 13% in a month.
The short position I hold has been active since last week; honestly, there were a few times I wanted to close it—during the rebound, the internal thoughts in the comment section were probably all "face slapped, huh."
But there's something more honest than candlestick charts: ETFs have been flowing out for over 82k, in May, institutions are buying stocks with one hand and selling coins with the other.
It's not that they are bearish on crypto; they have other things on their minds.
The reason I’ve been holding my short position is partly because of this—it's not about betting on the direction, it's because I haven't decided to take the money back yet.
Now the whole internet is calling for a bear market.
At this moment, it’s even more important to ask yourself: when the consensus is so unified, who is on the other side taking the risk?
In the first week of June, I still hold my short.
But not because "it will fall further," it’s because I haven't seen any signals that the money is turning around.
When I do see them, I will close regardless of the price.
Of course, what I’m looking for is not just the money returning, but also the transformation of the cyclical structural attributes—nothing can be missing.