If comparing the Iran-U.S. negotiations to a "group chat," then the recent developments are like a soap opera: creating a group, kicking people out, @全體成員, then creating the group again. And most recently, Iran decisively chose to "leave the group chat."

According to reports, Iran officially refused to attend the new round of negotiations scheduled to be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, and U.S. Vice President Harris's planned itinerary was also canceled. Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement and stated that "they will not participate in negotiations under pressure." In short: it’s not that they refuse to talk, but they want to show a strong stance first.
Generally speaking, geopolitical conflicts = risk aversion sentiment = gold prices rise. But this time, the script played out differently.
Why did Iran leaving the group chat cause gold to come under pressure?
The key lies in a transmission chain that many people overlook — the real spark ignited by Iran was not the gold price, but the oil price. Since late February, gold has faced strong selling pressure, precisely because Iran-related conflicts triggered a surge in oil prices, which heightened inflation concerns and reinforced market expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → markets worry that the Fed may not cut rates or might even raise them → the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold increases → funds instead withdraw from gold. So you see, even with intense Middle Eastern tensions, gold remains around $4,500 per ounce, close to a two-month low.
What’s more subtle is the hope that was just ignited a few days ago. Earlier, reports of a preliminary understanding between Iran and the U.S., plans to extend the ceasefire agreement by 60 days, and negotiations on nuclear plans temporarily eased inflation and interest rate worries, causing gold prices to rebound slightly. But this optimism was fragile — Trump had not yet approved the proposed terms, and Vice President Harris also said it was too early to judge the timing and likelihood of an agreement. Iran’s "exit from the group" essentially burst this fragile optimism.