I suspect the next 12 months provide us a major expansion in DeFi and CeDeFi lending activity.


Pretty much every lending protocol of note (and some who are not) has just released or will soon release a new version.
I’m not sure those new versions will themselves provide much of a Cambrian Explosion of new lending structures, but it means there’s a window where the accumulated Lindy of most players in the DeFi lending market will be reset.
Assuming there are enough new features to lure depositors away from Morpho v1 and Aave v3, then the arms race will be on, since a new entrant is unlikely to need as high of a risk premium to compete with Morpho v2 and Aave v4.
So I expect the evolution of the half dozen or more lending protocols with new versions will actually be quite swift as they roll out new products.
We already see (I think mostly imperfect) experimentation with fixed rates and tranching structures, but there’s a wide world of other species of lending:
Convertible debt, subordinated/second lien, capital call financing, committed revolving facilities, whole business (assets + revenue based finance), etc etc etc.
So there’s a lot of room for enterprising lending protocols to carve out specialties they can dominate.
MORPHO1.78%
AAVE-3.76%
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