#ETH在2000关口震荡

Bitcoin Bulls Are Holding at a Key Level; Losing This Level Means a 10% Drop

However, the continuation of the decline remains weak. Both green and red volumes have been decreasing since the breakdown on May 28, indicating waning interest below the neckline, not aggressive selling.

This fading interest allows buyers to maintain the area without much resistance. As a result, the market forms a narrow and uncertain range, not a sharp decline as typically seen in head and shoulders patterns. This calm will persist if large holders do not move below the surface.

Holders Adding Coins While Open Interest Is Still Thin

Behind BTC's price, confidence is starting to shift. The Hodler Net Position Change, a metric tracking whether medium- to long-term holders are adding or distributing coins, has increased since May 29, after the pattern experienced a breakdown. The figure rose from around 38,056 BTC to about 40,309 BTC, an almost 6% increase, indicating accumulation rather than panic.

Meanwhile, leverage also appears low. Bitcoin's open interest, the total value of unresolved futures contracts, decreased from US$34.45 billion on May 14 to around US$30.4 billion, one of the lowest levels in recent weeks.

The funding rate, which is the periodic payment between long and short traders indicating position bias, has shifted from negative 0.009% to positive 0.002%. This suggests a slight optimistic sentiment, though not strong enough to trigger sharp price movements in either direction. With thinning leverage and holders continuing to accumulate, the price chart remains a key factor.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch as the Neckline Battle Heats Up

The 8-hour chart clearly illustrates where the battle is taking place. Bitcoin's price fell below the neckline around US$73,998 and then broke through support at US$73,769. However, so far, the price has managed to hold at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, an important level marking a proportional correction of the previous move, at US$72,754.

This level is the trigger. If the price closes below US$72,754 on the 8-hour chart, which is just a 1% decline from the current price, then the price could move toward US$71,310, then US$69,470, and ultimately target the pattern at US$66,798, or a full 10% decline from the previously broken neckline. The 0.618 level still holds, even though the pattern has experienced a breakdown with high selling volume.

Now, thinning volume and low open interest mean this pattern could fail to continue without an external trigger, such as macroeconomic changes or new policies. To reverse the bias, Bitcoin must reclaim levels of US$74,783, then US$76,039, and finally US$78,068.

For now, US$72,754 is the boundary between range-bound movement and a potential 10% breakdown toward US$66,798 (around the US$66,800 zone).