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As May comes to an end, Bitcoin goes from where it started back to where it started. Prices haven’t changed; the direction of the money has.
A week ago, BTC was still at 77k, it dipped to 72.5k on Thursday, and today it’s 73.8k. Over the course of a month, it’s basically gone nowhere, while the S&P has been rising for nine straight weeks. Under the same macro environment, there are two completely opposite voting outcomes. The US stock market is betting on a soft landing, while the crypto market is tightening liquidity through trading. One of them has to be wrong.
In May, ETFs ran more than 2 billion USD—institutions are selling coins to buy stocks. Will this trend continue into June? This week’s ISM and PMI data will tell. Honestly, I’m not sure which side will win. But when two markets deliver opposite judgments on the same issue, convergence is only a matter of time.
In the first week of June, don’t look at price levels—look at direction. Which one admits it’s wrong first, the S&P or Bitcoin, will set the tone for this summer.