#美股期权延长交易时段 #BTC BTC$73K near a do-or-die stand: intense contest for the short-term bottom

【Market】

Last week, BTC broke below the important psychological level of $73,000, hitting a 6-week low, with market capitalization also sliding below $1.5T. On-chain data shows short-term holders are building defenses in the $73–74K range, with $78K as the short-term rebound target. Institutional dip-buying funds purchased about $500M near $72K, indicating that some funds believe current levels are attractive.

ETH continues to underperform BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio is down 37% from its recent high, and $1,800 has become a key support area.

【Core Highlights】

1、Macro pressure is concentrated: The Federal Reserve held steady at its May meeting for the third consecutive time, but voting disagreements widened to 8-4—marking the first time since 1992 that there were 4 votes against, with marginal strengthening of hawkish signals. US April CPI rose +3.8% year-over-year; the energy component rose +17.9% and gasoline rose +28.4%, showing that inflation stickiness has not eased.

2、BTC ETF net outflows continued for 9 consecutive days, totaling $2.8 billion in selling (the largest scale since the end of January), with institutions loosening their positions, increasing near-term selling pressure. On Polymarket, large traders are betting that BTC will not stand above $80K today; the $4K price gap reflects cautious sentiment in the short-term market.

3、Geopolitical risk is heating up at the margin: After the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire memorandum, Iranian IRGC officers were targeted and eliminated. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become tense again, and the energy risk premium may rise.

According to the Wolf’s judgment, the current inclination is cautious watch-and-wait. Short-term bottom signals are not yet clear, but institutional bargain-hunting activity has appeared near $72K. If support in the $73–74K range holds effectively, it may trigger a technical rebound. The key to watch is whether $78K can be reclaimed—if the rebound hits resistance here, be alert to the risk of the trend weakening. The macro combination of hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and high inflation continues to weigh on risk assets, and low-level range-bound consolidation may persist.

In the medium term, institutional ETF outflows continue, standing in confrontation with Smart Money buying against the trend. The choice of direction will need to wait for macro signals to become clearer.

【Risk Reminder】

If BTC effectively breaks below $67K (futures gap support), it will open downside room down to the key support at $65K. A hawkish Federal Reserve stance exceeding expectations, along with repeated high-inflation data, could trigger a new round of pullbacks. Tokens with small market caps like PORTAL have extremely small OI bases and large data noise—so they should be referenced with caution.

Crypto markets are risky; this is for informational purposes only.

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