These days, people are once again using ETF fund flows and risk appetite in the U.S. stock market to explain crypto’s up-and-down moves, and I can’t help but laugh at it… Basically, when market sentiment heats up, the first thing that gets eaten away is the time of the options buyers. What you’re buying is “possibility”—every day you wake up and nothing happens, you’re losing that small amount of time value. As for the seller, it’s like collecting rent: if the market doesn’t come, they slowly make money, but once a big move hits, they have to start panicking to top up margin.

When I’m the one feeling FOMO, I like to be the buyer—I’m chasing a breakout; but when I look back, most of the time it’s just ground down by time. The more you wait, the more frantic you get, and in the end, you end up cutting your position. These days, I’m more inclined to: if you’re not sure, don’t force a buy of long-dated options. If you really want to go for it, then make it shorter and keep the position smaller—at least you lose with full clarity. Either way, when it comes to time, once you look closely, you can tell which side it’s on.