5.31 Evening

Thought process analysis and forecast:
Bitcoin's daily chart from the open to the evening shows an overall pattern of rising and then falling back. In the morning, it reached a high near 74,250, then was gradually pushed down by the upper Bollinger Band, with the lowest point around 73,388 in the evening. Currently, it is around 73,600 with weak recovery. Structurally, the 74,200-74,500 zone has obvious selling pressure; after breaking below the middle band, the price moved close to the lower band, and short-term bears still hold the advantage. The altcoin market also declined simultaneously, with a high near 2,037 and a low around 2,004. The 2,000 level temporarily provides support, but resistance above 2,030 remains strong. From the capital perspective, trading volume increased during the decline, indicating that funds chasing high positions are starting to exit, and leverage sentiment is cooling down. Technically, MACD is weakening in the short term, KDJ is diverging downward, and RSI has fallen into a weak zone, with a risk of a second test of support in the short term. On the news front, the US and Iran's ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz shipping, and sanctions issues have not yet fully settled, and fluctuations in energy and the dollar continue to impact risk assets; regarding Russia-Ukraine, risks related to Ukraine attacking Russian energy facilities and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have increased risk aversion. Meanwhile, recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have suppressed market sentiment. Overall, tonight's strategy is to focus on shorting after rebounds, paying attention to opportunities for pullbacks after resistance is tested.

Trading suggestions:
Bitcoin: Short near 74,500-75,000, target 72,500, 73,000.
Altcoins: Short near 2,020-2,030, target #美伊谈判博弈 1,980, 1,960.