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The likelihood of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement decreases

MeNews
ME News Report, April 19 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the prediction "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before April 30, 2026?", the probability of the "Yes" option has decreased from 61.0% to 39.0%, a drop of 22.0 percentage points in one day.
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This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
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FloatingMirrorSphere
· 6h ago
Is this jump in magnitude, did someone get insider information?
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-382715ed
· 05-31 17:57
39% is actually more realistic; the previous 61% was indeed overly optimistic.
View OriginalReply0
MintCondition
· 05-31 17:00
If 22 points say no, then it's a no; predicting the market is even more exciting than DeFi.
View OriginalReply0
BridgeTroll
· 05-31 16:58
Polymarket’s liquidity—once those big orders come in, there’s simply no way it can even absorb them; they just get smashed.
View OriginalReply0
AirdropNightwatch
· 05-31 16:52
From 61 to 39, the Air Force has had a good feast this round.
View OriginalReply0
MistValleySignpost
· 05-31 16:50
It's recommended to look at the odds, not just the probability; the implied information content is greater.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-047cb6fc
· 05-31 16:44
It's still early April 2026, and the current pricing is basically a blind guess.
View OriginalReply0
BlackVelvetBluePeony
· 05-31 16:34
Peace agreements, these political black swans, betting on them all depends on faith.
View OriginalReply0

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