Trump demands Iran abandon nuclear program and reopen the Strait; the defense secretary warns they'll attack if talks break down—this script feels all too familiar. Next week, non-farm payrolls + Fed speeches + AI earnings reports; June's consolidation phase is probably unavoidable. Risk assets, don't rush to be optimistic yet.

On May 31st, the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations were close but Iran denied the final text, and disagreements still exist. Trump demanded the abandonment of nuclear capabilities and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of Defense warned that failure in negotiations would lead to the resumption of military actions. If a ceasefire extension or phased agreement is reached next week, risk assets may benefit, and the direction of the oil market and safe-haven assets could change again. On the macro front, data such as May non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will be released next week, and Federal Reserve officials will comment on inflation and interest rate paths. AI remains the core driver of global risk assets, with attention to earnings reports from CrowdStrike and others. After reaching new highs in May, US stocks may enter a consolidation phase in June.