Recently, I’ve been looking at those address labels and clustering graphs again, and the more I look, the more I feel: you can believe it, but don’t believe it too much… It’s as natural for the same person to spread out a bunch of addresses as breathing, and on the flip side, forcing a string of addresses into “a certain institution” also feels a lot like fortune-telling. I treat on-chain fund flows like a “thermometer”—you can see which side is heating up—but if you really want to pin it down to exactly who is selling and who is buying, it’s easy to fall into self-hypnosis.

In the past couple of days, the staking-unlock and token-unlock calendar has been dug up again and it’s scary. To put it plainly, selling-pressure anxiety has always been there; it’s just using a different excuse. My approach is to first look at the rhythm of abnormal transfers and the time gaps—sometimes it feels more like moving funds or market-making entities cleaning up their books than a “pre-dump” shakeout… Anyway, I’m not daring to be too heavy in my position right now, so I’ll draw a couple more charts first.