Lately, people keep saying that those on-chain “coincidental transfers” are mysterious—like someone just topped up a couple minutes ago and it gets swept away. To put it plainly, most of the time it isn’t coincidence; it’s because the path was laid out by you: the same entry address, the same gas habits, even the same authorization traces—one sequence after another that can be traced back. And with those MEV folks watching the mempool, once they see what you’re about to do, it’s basically obvious.

These days, hardware wallets have been out of stock, phishing links are coming out in high volume, and suddenly everyone is calling for “security.” What I find most dangerous is the kind of person who “thinks they’re safe”: one mistaken signature, and then every transfer afterward feels like you’re giving someone else your location. Anyway, whenever I see suspicious flows now, I break them down first from authorization, related deposits, and the transaction time window—if I can explain it, I won’t mystify it. That’s it for now.