#TradFi交易分享挑战

Today’s Core Analysis of Ethereum Market Trends

1. Market Summary

As of May 31, ETH price is approximately in the $2,011-$2,019 range, further down from $2,070 on May 27. ETH has declined about 12.6% in May, ending the streak of gains in May for 2024 (+24.7%) and 2025 (+41.1%) for two consecutive years. The main driver of this decline is massive outflows from ETH spot ETFs—net outflow in May reached $401.62 million, the third-largest monthly outflow since November 2025.

Recent price action shows a clear weak trend: closing at $2,070 on May 27, dropping to $2,022 on May 28, further falling to around $1,995 on May 29, then slightly rebounding to the $2,011-$2,028 range on May 30, but with weak rebound strength. The lowest point touched was near $1,967, indicating that bullish support is under severe test.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis

Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is around $2,233, and the 200-day moving average is about $2,664, with the 50-day well below the 200-day, forming a typical bearish alignment. The short-term price deviates from the 50-day MA by over 10%, suggesting a medium-term downtrend but with oversold conditions needing correction in the short term.

RSI: The daily RSI has entered oversold territory, recently reaching a low close to $1,967. On the 2-day chart, a key "hidden bullish divergence" signal appears—between March 28 and May 27, ETH prices approached higher lows, while RSI formed lower lows. This structure often indicates a rebound in a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Confirmation requires the next 2-day candle to close above $1,964.

MACD: Currently in a bearish zone, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. However, if the hidden bullish divergence is confirmed, there could be signs of diminishing bearish momentum, such as narrowing histogram bars.

Position Distribution: Glassnode’s cost basis distribution shows two dense zones above current prices. The low-density zone is at $2,059-$2,075 (holding 1.37 million ETH), and the high-density zone is at $2,154-$2,170 (holding 1.24 million ETH). These areas align closely with Fibonacci retracement levels—0.618 Fib at $2,055 and 0.5 Fib at $2,134. Rebound resistance is likely in these zones.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:

$1,964 (trendline + hidden bullish divergence confirmation line, the most critical bullish/bearish dividing line)

$1,798 (Fibonacci 1.0 level)

$1,545 (downside target after inverse cup-and-handle breakdown, estimated at 21%)

Resistance Levels:

$2,055-$2,075 (cost basis dense zone + 0.618 Fib, first strong rebound wall)

$2,134-$2,170 (cost basis dense zone + 0.5 Fib, second rebound wall)

$2,350-$2,400 (previously failed multiple breakouts, strong resistance zone)

4. Market Outlook

June has historically been weak for ETH—since 2016, average return in June is -6.74%, median -5.65%, with only 3 out of the past ten years seeing gains. Coupled with persistent ETF outflows, seasonal factors are not optimistic.

However, notable is the counter-movement by whales and long-term holders: Santiment data shows that from May 1 to now, whale addresses (excluding exchanges) increased ETH holdings from 124.15 million to 125.17 million, net adding over $200 million. Glassnode’s Net HODLer Position Change indicator has been positive since February 24 and has accelerated since mid-May, contrasting sharply with the deep red during the February crash. This suggests long-term holders view this correction as a buying opportunity rather than panic selling.

Bearish breakdown scenario: if support at $1,964 breaks, confirmed by a close below the 2-day candle, it could accelerate downward to the Fibonacci target at $1,798, with an extreme test at $1,545. June may become the most painful month since 2026.

5. Trading Recommendations

Short-term traders: $1,964 is the most critical reference line now. If the price stabilizes above it, consider small positions for a rebound, targeting $2,055-$2,134, but be prepared to exit quickly if resistance holds. If $1,964 breaks, avoid bottom fishing; wait for $1,798 or lower to reassess. For derivatives traders, shorting on rallies near 2050 is a good strategy.

Mid-term holders: The accumulation signals from whales and long-term holders are noteworthy, but ETF outflows and seasonal weakness in June suggest a reversal is not imminent. Avoid adding positions at current levels unless $1,964 holds firmly and a breakout above $2,134 occurs.