Next week's macro outlook: Serious division in US-Iran signals, focusing on Fed speeches and non-farm payroll data

ME News, May 31 (UTC+8): U.S. stocks closed May at a record high, extending the rebound momentum since the March lows, as market confidence in the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to strengthen. This week’s market performance, to some extent, foreshadows the potential reaction after an agreement is reached: as investors’ hopes for a peace deal involving the Trump administration grow, bond yields fall, oil prices pull back, and major stock indexes generally rise. The Nasdaq Composite has gained more than 8% since the end of April. Gold saw another volatile week, with gold selling accelerating midweek after the U.S. launched strikes against Iran again. As a new week begins, investors will focus on the health of the U.S. economy and the labor market, because a busy schedule of economic data releases could significantly affect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations.

Here are the key points the market will focus on next week (all times Beijing):

• Monday 08:30 — Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivers an acceptance speech at the John F. Kennedy Courage Award ceremony
• Monday 15:55-16:30 — UK, France, Germany, Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI final
• Monday 22:00 — U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Tuesday 13:50 — Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC and President of the Minneapolis Fed, delivers remarks
• Tuesday 17:00 — Eurozone May CPI preliminary figures (year-over-year/month-over-month)
• Tuesday 20:30 — Harker, a voting member of the FOMC and President of the Cleveland Fed, delivers remarks on monetary policy
• Tuesday 22:00 — Bank of England Governor Bailey attends a hearing at the House of Lords; 23:00 — Green, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, delivers remarks
• Tuesday 22:00 — U.S. April JOLTs job openings
• Wednesday 15:55-16:30 — UK, France, Germany, Eurozone May Services PMI final; 17:00 — Eurozone April PPI monthly rate
• Wednesday 20:15 — U.S. May ADP Employment Change; 22:00 — U.S. May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• Thursday 02:00 — The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
• Thursday 19:30 — U.S. May Challenger layoffs; 20:30 — U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30
• Friday 01:10 — Daly, a voting member of the FOMC and President of the San Francisco Fed, delivers remarks
• Friday 17:00 — Eurozone Q1 GDP revised annual rate; Q1 seasonally adjusted employment final
• Friday 20:30 — U.S. May unemployment rate; seasonally adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls for May; and May average hourly earnings (year-over-year/month-over-month)

With Q1 earnings season nearing its end, Meituan (03690.HK), chip giant Broadcom (AVGO.O), Tiger Securities (TIGR.O), and others will release results next week. From a seasonal perspective, the U.S. stock market also faces other challenges. In midterm election years, June is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, and investors generally expect the market may soon enter a period of short-term consolidation. (Source: PANews)