Next week's macro outlook: The risk of the US-Israel conflict reigniting sharply increases, gold is approaching a turning point in its trend

ME News Update, May 16 (UTC+8). Over the past week, energy prices surged driven by the Iran war, causing U.S. inflation data to rise comprehensively, with multiple key indicators reaching multi-year highs. Traders have largely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year, while bets on rate hikes later this year have heated up. In the coming week, the minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting will be closely watched for signs of whether the rate-hike signals are starting to strengthen. In addition, uncertainty in the Middle East situation remains a shadow hanging over global markets.

Below are the key points that markets will focus on in the new week: Monday: The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held through May 19. Tuesday 20:00: Fed Governor Waller will deliver remarks at the European Central Bank research conference. Tuesday 20:15: U.S. weekly ADP employment changes for the week ending May 2. Wednesday 7:00: FOMC voting member in 2026 and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will deliver remarks. Thursday 2:00: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. Thursday 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, the total number of new home starts in April (annualized), total building permits for April, and the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Friday 22:00: The final readings of the U.S. May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the final one-year inflation expectations rate, as well as the monthly rate of the U.S. April Conference Board Leading Economic Index.

Israel and the U.S. are reportedly planning—or at the latest will resume next week—strikes on Iran. Gold bulls may face a make-or-break moment, as expectations for rate hikes in the bond market are boiling over and the “Powell era”’s final set of meeting minutes is set to arrive. Moreover, the AI boom and consumer spending under inflationary pressure are currently the two core storylines guiding the direction of U.S. stocks. Next week, semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NVDA) and a range of retail companies such as Walmart (WMT) will release earnings reports one after another, and the market will conduct in-depth analysis around these two main themes. (Source: PANews)