Kyle Samani: There is uncertainty about the implementation of Kalshi and US crypto perpetual contracts, or there are three possible outcomes

Golden Finance reports that Kyle Samani, former co-founder of Multicoin Capital, posted an analysis on the X platform about the potential development scenarios for Kalshi and the U.S. perpetual crypto contract market:

1. Kalshi's previous efforts are insignificant: because the U.S. market already offers non-regulated perpetual contracts.
2. The protocol must meet the eight decentralization tests of the CLARITY Act: if the CLARITY Act passes smoothly, the protocol can offer perpetual contracts in the U.S. without registering as a DCO (Designated Contract Organizer) and DCM (Designated Contract Market).
3. The product can still attract users but cannot legally enter the U.S. financial system: even if users accept it, the protocol may still be unable to distribute within a compliant framework. The analysis suggests that these potential outcomes highlight the complex relationship between current U.S. derivatives regulation and decentralized protocols, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the lawful implementation of innovative financial products.