The market is currently at a critical stage. The price initially rose from around $65k to approximately $82.8k before starting to pull back, recently breaking below the short-term moving averages consecutively. The overall trend is somewhat weak, but there has been no true trend breakdown.

Currently, the price is around $73.5k, and the 99-day moving average is just at about $73k, which is also the most important support zone at the moment. From historical experience, large-scale corrections during a bull market often find support near long-term moving averages, so a fierce battle between bulls and bears is likely to occur here.
If the price can hold above $73k in the next week and gradually recover the $76k to $78k range, BTC is expected to reattempt the $80k mark. Once it breaks through the $80k threshold, market sentiment will significantly improve, and funds will flow back into altcoins.
However, it is important to note that the global macro environment still carries uncertainties. The situation in the Middle East, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and stock market volatility will all impact the crypto market. If new negative news emerges, BTC may continue to decline toward $70k or even around $68k to find support.
Overall, my outlook for the next month leans toward “consolidation and bottom-building.” Rather than starting a new upward wave immediately, I prefer to see BTC fluctuate within the $70k to $80k range, waiting for new market catalysts. From a medium- to long-term perspective, as long as $68k is not effectively broken, the overall bull market structure remains intact. Currently, this looks more like a deep shakeout during an upward process rather than the beginning of a new bear market.