Recently, I've seen people interpret on-chain large transfers and hot/cold wallet movements on exchanges as "smart money," chasing after them.

It just makes me a bit sleepy to watch...
Honestly, the information is too noisy, the more you watch, the more itchy your hands get.
A quick trade is satisfying, but sleep quality is basically inversely proportional to your position size;
Grid/DCA is like installing a speed bump for yourself, so you don't get overly excited when prices rise, and there's something to do when they fall.
Whether it matches or not really depends on whether you can accept waking up to find the trend reversed and still having to tough it out.
What I don't regret is choosing the easier sleep route—earning a bit less is okay,
Anyway, enduring the cycle is a long game.