#TradFi交易分享挑战

TSMC (TSM) Global Foundry Deep Dive Research Report

1 Core Investment Conclusion
TSMC (TSM) is the absolute leader in advanced process technology, driven by the AI computing power revolution with high growth, CAGR of about 25% from 2026 to 2028, rated as a buy, with a target price of $430.

2 Company Overview and Market Position
Global foundry leader, established in 1987, pure wafer foundry model, headquartered in 🇨🇳 Taiwan.
By 2025, holds 71% global market share, far ahead; over 90% market share in 7nm and below advanced processes, core foundry for Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm.
Process coverage: mass production of 3nm, R&D on 2nm, the only manufacturer capable of mass-producing 3nm.
Capacity layout: mainly in Taiwan, with factories in Phoenix, USA, and Kumamoto, Japan, to diversify geopolitical risks globally.
2025 revenue: $130 billion (+31.6%), net profit: $46.8 billion (+46.4%), gross margin: 59.9%.

3 Core Competitiveness and Growth Logic
AI computing power + advanced process technology drive dual growth
1 Technological barriers (unbreakable): 3nm yield over 80%, 2nm using GAA architecture, mass production in 2026; advanced packaging (CoWoS, SoIC) enhances computing power barriers, AI chip packaging market share over 70%.
2 AI computing power explosion (core engine): 2025 AI-related revenue accounts for 18%, 2026 AI chip orders +50% YoY, Nvidia B100, Apple M4 all foundry by TSMC.
3 Pricing power (continuous price increases): 3nm price increase of 15% in late 2026, 5nm/7nm increases of 5-10%, gross margin continues to rise.
4 Global capacity (hedging geopolitical risks): US factory to mass produce 5nm in 2026, Japan factory focusing on 22/28nm, diversifying political risks.

4 Performance Forecast (2026-2028, in billions USD)
2026: Revenue $169 billion (+30%), net profit $62 billion (+32%), gross margin 63%, AI revenue share 25%.
2027: Revenue $211 billion (+25%), net profit $79 billion (+27%), gross margin 65%, contribution from 2nm mass production increases.
2028: Revenue $264 billion (+25%), net profit $99 billion (+25%), gross margin 66%, AI computing power continues to explode.

5 Valuation and Investment Rating
(Buy, target price $430)
Current PE of 28x, below the average 35x for global semiconductor leaders, in the 30% percentile over the past three years.
High growth in AI computing power + advanced process barriers + pricing power, applying a 30x PE for 2027, with a target price of $430, potential upside of 26%.
Suitable for long-term growth, AI computing theme, and global core holdings.

6 Risk Factors
Geopolitical risks: US restrictions escalation, Taiwan geopolitical conflicts affecting capacity.
Technical risks: 2nm yield ramp-up below expectations, Samsung catching up faster than expected.
Customer concentration risk: high proportion of orders from Nvidia and Apple, demand fluctuations have significant impact.

7 Summary
TSMC is the core infrastructure for global AI computing power, with unmatched technological barriers, customer stickiness, and pricing power. Long-term growth certainty is strong, making it a “ ballast stone” in the semiconductor sector.