Over the past two days, I’ve started fixating on interest rates again. Honestly, every time I see the expectation that “it’ll stay high for a while longer,” my risk appetite feels like someone has turned a knob down by half a turn, and my positioning starts to shake right along with it. Macro isn’t that mysterious—money just wants to stay in certainty. Crypto, which leans on imagination, gets hit first… But even if I’m pessimistic out loud, I’ll still slowly pick up a bit by hand, as long as there really are users actually using the chain on-chain and retention hasn’t collapsed. Lately, the staking unlocks and the token unlock calendar have been repeatedly pulled out to scare people, and I’ll get spooked too. I’ll just split my position increases into even smaller chunks, so that one big bearish candle doesn’t break straight through my mindset.



And here’s a reminder to myself: I treat “simplicity” as a trap. Those one-line conclusions like “rate cuts are bullish / unlocks are bearish” are often the most dangerous.
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