Currently, the crypto market is struggling to break out of a strong rebound. What key signals are missing? Sharing a stable profit approach for ordinary investors in a volatile market

Many friends trading cryptocurrencies have recently shared the same intuitive feeling: the overall market is stuck in a deadlock, with Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidating sideways for a long time. Each small rally is quickly followed by a pullback, with repeated washout actions, and no sustained upward trend has emerged. Many beginners and long-term holders are confused—after BTC and ETH stabilize within their current ranges, what kind of news catalysts are needed to trigger a powerful trend rebound? How much off-market capital must enter to move the market? Based on recent market changes and capital flows, I’ll share my honest observations and a low-risk trading approach suitable for ordinary people today.

First, let’s discuss the core reasons behind Bitcoin and Ethereum’s lack of upward momentum. Currently, the two main cryptocurrencies are stuck oscillating around key support levels, with bulls and bears engaged in ongoing tug-of-war, leading to maximum disagreement in the market. Although institutional funds are still slowly buying through spot ETF channels, and some large capital is gradually accumulating at low levels, the overall trading sentiment remains conservative. The lack of off-market incremental funds and the absence of a unified market narrative have directly hindered a market rebound.

Many people are hoping for a decent rebound. Looking at past bull markets and intermediate corrections, a sustainable upward trend requires two essential conditions: a core narrative that can unify market expectations, and a continuous influx of new capital. Currently, the entire crypto market is in a period of thematic vacuum. The previously driving logic—such as Bitcoin halving expectations, major Ethereum network upgrades, regulatory relaxations in various countries, and large institutional compliant products—has no new developments. The positive effects of Ethereum upgrades have already been priced in, ETF fund inflows have slowed, and no major regulatory policies are expected in the short term. Without a theme that can gather market consensus, sustained upward movement is naturally difficult.

There are only three main positive catalysts that can truly drive Bitcoin and Ethereum out of a trend. First, macroeconomic factors—if the Federal Reserve signals clear interest rate cuts, global liquidity will loosen, and funds will flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Second, the implementation of crypto industry regulation—clear compliance frameworks can dispel large institutions’ concerns and open channels for bigger institutional participation. Third, endogenous industry positives—such as Ethereum’s technological upgrades and the tokenization of real assets—can fully ferment narratives of long-term growth and expand industry imagination.

Without any of these major narratives supporting, relying solely on retail traders’ short-term FOMO will only cause a brief spike lasting a day or two, followed by a quick return to sideways or downward movement. Bitcoin and Ethereum have enormous market caps, and scattered retail funds are insufficient to reverse the overall trend. The current market is essentially a game of existing capital—funds switch between different tokens within the market, while off-market capital remains on the sidelines. Previously, large daily ETF inflows could only trigger short-term small rebounds. To achieve a full wave of market movement, a long-term, stable institutional inflow trend must form. Only with continuous large-scale institutional deployment can the current stalemate be broken.

After discussing the market situation, let’s talk about how ordinary investors can operate in this volatile environment to steadily earn profits. A few years ago, the crypto market was chaotic, with countless altcoins and aircoins, and prices driven entirely by project teams and market makers, with no underlying logic. Market manipulation was common—pumping and dumping, causing wild price swings. Retail investors chasing high prices often got trapped, and most altcoins eventually approached zero, making entry almost equivalent to giving away their principal.

However, the entire market’s trading logic has already changed fundamentally. The hype around purely speculative altcoins has significantly diminished, and the market is shifting toward value-driven assets. Compliance and legitimate assets are now mainstream. Given the current sideways market environment, I personally favor and consider the lowest-risk trading approach to be investing in tokens that mirror US stocks.

The reasons for choosing such tokens are very practical, and I have experienced this firsthand. First, these tokens have ample price volatility, allowing traders to seize arbitrage opportunities whether doing short-term intraday trading or swing trading. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are stuck in long-term sideways consolidation with no suitable trading windows, these tokens offer more frequent trading opportunities. Second, they are much safer than obscure altcoins—backed by real US companies with actual operations and fundamentals. Even if the overall market drops sharply, these tokens are unlikely to go to zero completely.

Compared to altcoins with no real backing that rely solely on hype, US stock-mapped tokens avoid the greatest risk of total principal loss. During periods without a full bull market or sustained bottoming, preserving capital and steadily earning swing profits is the true path to success.

Finally, a brief summary of the current market’s core judgment and operational ideas: First, Bitcoin and Ethereum are unlikely to trigger sustained short-term rebounds soon, due to the lack of a unified narrative and long-term institutional inflows; sideways consolidation is likely to continue for a while. Second, the crypto industry has moved away from chaotic altcoin speculation that exploited retail investors; the risk of purely speculative tokens has increased. Third, in this sideways bottoming phase, chasing short-term doubling is unnecessary—prioritize risk control, focus on US stock-mapped tokens, and rely on sufficient volatility to earn stable returns. This is the most suitable trading approach for ordinary investors aligned with the current market rhythm.

The market never lacks trading opportunities; capital is the foundation of long-term survival in investing. Don’t blindly chase obscure, junk tokens, and don’t bet all your principal on a short-term Bitcoin rally. Follow the current market rhythm, operate steadily, and use arbitrage to stay profitable for the long #WTI原油失守90美元 haul.