1. Stock Market: Hovering at High Levels, Implied Volatility in the VIX Has Not Disappeared

In late May, global stock markets generally rose, but the collapse in U.S. Treasury yields has been sending deep signals. The Dow briefly hit a new closing high, while the S&P 500 also refreshed its record. Being at a high is never comfortable; the key factor determining the next phase's direction is the combined influence of geopolitical and Federal Reserve variables.

2. Geopolitics: From Tensions to "Super Positive" Expectations

The news of a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and the signing of a memorandum of understanding is one of the core reasons supporting recent market risk appetite recovery. Once the situation stabilizes, oil prices will continue to face downward pressure, inflation expectations will further cool, and this will open space for the Fed to "cut rates + reduce balance sheet."

3. The Wosh Era Officially Begins: Short-term Pain for Long-term Space

In mid-May, after Wosh was sworn in, the market's pricing logic underwent a fundamental change.

· The policy backdrop of "loose prices and tight liquidity" has been established: Wosh is simultaneously promoting "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," essentially using short-term liquidity pain to secure long-term economic health.
· The market initially priced in "no rate cuts, possibly even rate hikes," with a 70% probability of at least one rate hike within the year.
· The latest sentiment indicators show a critical turning point: some analysts suggest the market may have overreacted to rate hike expectations, and in the coming weeks or months, there may be a shift back to expecting rate cuts. If market sentiment reverses like this, it will directly boost interest rate-sensitive assets.

4. U.S. Treasury Market: Collapse in Yields, What Is the Market Betting On?

U.S. Treasury yields experienced a collapse in May:

· Mid-May: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.2%, hitting a 19-year high; the 10-year yield approached above 4.7%.
· May 25: The 10-year yield had fallen back to 4.50%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 4.01%.
· Implicit logic: The broad decline in Treasury yields essentially reflects the market pre-pricing Wosh's balance sheet reduction and rate cuts, also confirming the oil price correction.

5. US Dollar Index: Turning Downward

After a slight rise, the US dollar index turned downward, currently hovering around 99.30. This trend aligns closely with the "risk appetite recovery" logic—when signs of easing in major global tail risks (Middle East conflict, aggressive Fed actions) appear, funds start flowing out of the dollar, the "safe haven," and back into other risk assets.

6. Gold: Geopolitical Premium Dissipation Is the Core Contradiction

Spot gold continued to be under pressure after news of a US-Iran ceasefire, briefly falling to around $4,366 per ounce, hitting multi-month lows.

The fundamental reason for gold's "more chaos, more decline" is that the driver of gold prices—"inflation expectations"—has been rapidly pulled out due to the plunge in oil prices. The duration and intensity of the US-Iran conflict have exceeded most institutional forecasts, diminishing the marginal panic effect of geopolitical risks. Crude oil remains the strongest short-term driver of gold's price movement.

7. Cryptocurrency Market: Highly Sensitive to Liquidity, Rebound Is the Most Lagging

Bitcoin is currently trading in the $73,000–$73,600 range, with a decline of over 4.4% this week; Ethereum has fallen over 4.5%, facing a tough test at the $2,000 level. The lagging rebound in crypto markets stems from their inherent high sensitivity to global liquidity. Only once Wosh's policy path becomes fully clear will the true direction be established.

8. Crude Oil: From Frenzy to Calm

WTI crude oil prices have fallen from earlier this month’s high above $100 to the $87–$90 range; Brent crude has dropped to $92–$95. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the average Brent price will further #成长值抽奖赢金条 decline to $56 by 2026.