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#TradFi交易分享挑战 Can I still buy gold now
After experiencing a significant rise and sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the year, international gold prices have recently entered a phase of oscillation and decline. On May 28th, spot gold fell below $4,400, down 1.79% for the day.
On the news front, as market volatility narrows, several banks have recently adjusted their gold accumulation services: some have lowered product risk ratings, some have extended trading hours, and some banks have launched fee discount promotions. Previously, banks tightened access due to sharp gold price fluctuations, but are now gradually easing gold investment entry.
Luo Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, stated that the bank’s gold accumulation business is “from tightening to loosening,” which to some extent indicates a consensus among banks that the central price of gold has shifted upward.
On one hand, the continued gold purchases by global central banks provide a bottom support for gold prices; on the other hand, the medium- to long-term upward logic has been largely fulfilled.
Against this backdrop, banks are moderately expanding their retail customer coverage, and the overall risk-reward ratio remains relatively controllable.
Analysis from the commodities team of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that in the short term, if the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran cannot be eased, international oil prices remain high, and inflation expectations rise again, it could push the market to reprice Federal Reserve rate hikes. If the market further prices in a 50-75 basis point rate hike, the gold price bottom may shift down to the $4,300–$4,400 per ounce range. However, in the medium to long term, gold demand has not disappeared entirely. Whether it’s the safe-haven demand returning after geopolitical conflicts de-escalate or supply shocks causing economic slowdown, which then spurs new safe-haven trades, these factors could drive a cyclical recovery in gold investment demand.
Currently, forecasts from international institutions on gold price trends vary greatly, even diverge significantly. Wells Fargo recently predicted that gold could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027, while Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its target to $5,200 per ounce; Goldman Sachs firmly believes gold will regain its upward momentum by the end of this year, whereas Citibank warns it could fall to $4,300 per ounce within three months.
For ordinary investors, gold still has long-term allocation value, but short-term volatility risks should not be ignored. Industry insiders generally advise avoiding viewing gold as a “sure profit” asset, and not blindly chasing high prices when market sentiment is high. Compared to a one-time heavy purchase, long-term small-scale investments through dollar-cost averaging may still be a relatively prudent way to participate in the current environment. $XAUUSD
International gold prices have experienced a sharp rise and intense volatility at the beginning of the year, and recently entered a phase of oscillation and decline. On May 28th, spot gold fell below $4,400, down 1.79% for the day.
On the news front, as market volatility narrows, several banks have recently adjusted their gold accumulation services: some have lowered product risk ratings, some have extended trading hours, and some banks have launched fee discount promotions. Previously, banks tightened access due to sharp gold price fluctuations, but are now gradually easing gold investment entry.
Luo Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, stated that the bank’s gold accumulation business is “from tightening to loosening,” which to some extent indicates a consensus among banks that the central price of gold has shifted upward.
On one hand, the continued gold purchases by global central banks provide a bottom support for gold prices; on the other hand, the medium- to long-term upward logic has been largely fulfilled.
Against this backdrop, banks are moderately expanding their retail customer coverage, and the overall risk-reward ratio remains relatively controllable.
Analysis from the commodities team of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that in the short term, if the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran cannot be eased, international oil prices remain high, and inflation expectations rise again, it could trigger a re-evaluation of the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. If the market further prices in a 50–75 basis point rate hike, the gold price bottom may shift down to the $4,300–$4,400 per ounce range. But in the medium to long term, gold demand has not disappeared entirely. Whether it’s the safe-haven demand returning after geopolitical conflicts de-escalate, or supply shocks causing economic slowdown and prompting new safe-haven trades, these factors could all drive a cyclical recovery in gold investment demand.
Currently, forecasts from international institutions on gold price trends vary greatly, even diverge significantly. Wells Fargo recently predicted that gold could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027, while Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its target to $5,200 per ounce; Goldman Sachs firmly believes gold will regain its upward momentum by the end of this year, whereas Citibank warns it could fall to $4,300 per ounce within three months.
For ordinary investors, gold still has long-term allocation value, but short-term volatility risks should not be ignored. Industry insiders generally advise avoiding viewing gold as a “sure-thing” asset, and not blindly chasing high when market sentiment is high. Compared to a lump-sum purchase, long-term, small-amount investments through dollar-cost averaging may still be a relatively prudent way to participate in the current environment. $XAUUSD