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MARKETS DO NOT NEED TO CRASH JUST BECAUSE THEY LOOK A LITTLE HOT.
People hear “valuations are elevated” & instantly jump to “bear market is coming, head for the hills.”
I do think valuations are hot now, but I am not calling for a MAJOR crash (possible though).
The market can trade sideways for a long time while earnings catch up. It does not have to drop 15% just because fair value might be 15% lower. Short term price action is irrational more often than not.
Here is the part most investors miss.
Waiting for the "perfect" crash usually destroys more wealth than volatility ever will. You might wait three years for a 35% pullback while the market quietly runs 60% in the same window. You still would have been better off buying earlier and sitting through the volatility...
If you are young you have something far more powerful than timing.
You have time itself.
Time in the market will always beat timing the market for the base portfolio.
If lump sum investing makes you anxious, stretch it out & DCA. Just stay in the game and continue to DCA the base.
When you find ultra compelling set ups, use options to magnify the move.
There is no 1999 style bubble here IMO.
Just a market that is a bit warm. That is ok.
The emotional side of investing is what breaks most new investors. Volatility feels scary until you learn to see it as opportunity.
Stick with the process.
Study.
Stay invested.
Build the base.
Do options responsibly.
Keep ratios in check.
& sleep good at night.
No need to complicate it!
This is how I scaled this account to 7 figures in just over 6 years in a low risk way.