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InvestingWithBrandon

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Retail investor: $NVDA is only up like 19% this year. It's done. Rotating out to find the next runner. Other stocks are going up way more.
Me: The stock's up 19%. What are the profits doing?
Retail investor: ...I mean, earnings have been strong I think?
Me: Record revenue. Massive EPS growth. The BUSINESS is having a monster year... the STOCK is having a quiet one. Those are two different things.
Retail investor: So why isn't the price moving?
Me: Because it ran hard for years & the price got ahead of the fundamentals. Now the profits are catching up while the price rests. That's what opportun
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NVDA+0.23%
Retail investor: I trade short term options. Faster expirations, faster money. More theta.
Me: How do you know which way the stock moves in 5 days?
Retail investor: I read the charts, watch the setups...
Me: Be honest. Does anyone actually know what a stock does next week?
Retail investor: ...no. Even when I'm sure, I get it wrong half the time.
Me: Right. The short term is pure noise. So selling weeklies is just guessing a coin flip 52 times a year.
Retail investor: & you don't do that?
Me: I sell portfolio secured puts a year+ out. I'm not guessing next week, I'm betting a great company boug
Just sent out my FREE Sunday newsletter covering this crazy market & what to do about it!
Check it out here:
There's an ETF that does nothing but sell cash secured puts on the S&P 500. The ticker is $WTPI.
It sells puts on SPY & parks the cash in T-bills to secure them. Textbook cash secured puts, run by professionals, for years.
Here's what $10,000 did in the last 10 years
WTPI: about $22k it became
The plain S&P 500: about $41k it became
THIS IS WITH ALL DIVIDENDS REINVESTED
Same index. The only difference is one sold cash secured puts & one just owned the stocks.
That's the cash drag. The collateral sits in T-bills earning a little while the market runs without it.
This is why I ONLY do portfolio
SPY+0.10%
US500+0.61%
This is the best argument against covered calls I've ever seen & it's one chart.
$Q is the 100 biggest companies on the Nasdaq.
$QYLD is the exact same 100 companies... but it sells covered calls on them every month for "income."
Same stocks. The only difference is the covered calls.
If you invested $10,000 in each & reinvested all dividends/cash flow:
$10,000 in Q became roughly $66,000.
$10,000 in QYLD became roughly $26,000.
ALL distributions reinvested.
That's what capping your upside costs over a decade.
& when the market dropped, QYLD dropped right along with it. The premium didn't prote
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Retail investor: VIX is spiking so I'm not touching anything until it calms back down.
Me: You know what the VIX actually measures, right?
Retail investor: ...market danger?
Me: Fear. It measures what people are PAYING for options. High VIX means option premiums are expensive.
Retail investor: Right, so... dangerous time.
Me: Dangerous for BUYERS potentially. I'm a portfolio secured put seller in times oh higher volatility. A high VIX means I get paid MORE for the exact same put I am selling. It's literally a "rate hike" on my premiums.
Retail investor: Wait... so the fear index is helping you
The first 25k is the hardest
but... the first $100k is is a little easier than the first 25k
but... the first $1M is a little easier than the first 100k
but... the first $2M is a little easier than the first 1m
One you get one level the second comes faster
Trust me!
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Humans like to have their trade thesis confirmed by the share price immediately mooing higher.
Sometimes that happens, but most of the time it does not...
This again is why i only do 1+ year options at a minimum because timing the market any shorter is VERY hard if not impossible in a consistent way.
This is also why Warren Buffett doesn't play games with short term stuff either...
Zooming out made me millions.
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The best stock of a generation fell 94% first. Most people don't know that.
$AMZN, dot com crash. Roughly $113 down to about $5.50 by late 2001.
Down 94%. $100k became ~$6k. & this wasn't some junk startup... it was THE Amazon. The company that went on to change everything.
Two lessons off this one chart & they both matter:
First... even the greatest company in the world can fall 90%+ when you buy it at a bubble price. Amazon the BUSINESS was fine. Amazon at 1999's price was a 13 year mistake. This is why I stress the importance of valuations so much.
Second... the people who actually got rich
AMZN+0.16%
I haven’t met a single person that beat the SP500 doing CCs, CSPs or wheel strategy in the last 10 years as their primary strategy.
NOT ONE...
What does that tell you?
When the market "CRASHES"
Everyone says "Buy the dip"
But do you know what it feels like to actually buy during a "meltdown" as an average retail investor?
- Your portfolio is red.
- The news says the world is ending.
- You second guess everything.
- You end up panic selling... at the exact wrong time.
Happens every cycle.
Smart investors will:
- Buy shares while they are on sale.
- Buy calls when nobody wants them. (cheaper)
- Sell puts when the herd is paying top dollar for them. (selling for max premium)
I always say the emotional aspect of investing is what crushes most retail investors...
Retail investor: Nike $NKE just hit a 52 week low. That's gotta be a steal at these prices.
Me: Maybe. Let's actually check instead of guessing.
Retail investor: It's Nike. Everybody knows Nike.
Me: Brand recognition doesn't matter... Pull up the earnings. Are profits growing or shrinking over the last few years?
Retail investor: ...I don't actually know.
Me: That's the whole question. A falling price with growing profits is a dip. A falling price with falling profits is a company in trouble...
Retail investor: So a 52 week low means nothing by itself?
Me: Nothing. It's a price, not a value. W
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NKE-0.73%
HOW TO BUILD A CASHFLOW MACHINE WITH $2,000,000:
$800k $VOO
$800k $Q
$400k in elite companies you'd hold a decade
That base compounds ~11% & NEVER gets sold. ~$220,000 a year doing nothing.
Then sell puts secured by that base, NOT cash. Every put passes all 5:
1. Below fair value TODAY
2. Real moat & pricing power
3. Profits growing for years
4. Strike 10% below current price
5. 1 year duration minimum
Premium lands the same day & buys more base.
Bigger base secures bigger puts. Bigger puts pay more premium.
No day trading. No covered calls. No cash sitting dead like a CSP.
10 minutes a day &
Retail investor: I've been investing 5 years & I'm barely up. Starting to think this doesn't work.
Me: What have you been doing?
Retail investor: Bit of everything. Swing trades, some options, a few stocks people were hyping.
Me: So 5 years of trying to beat the market by being "ACTIVE."
Retail investor: Yeah pretty much.
Me: & what did plain $Q do over those same 5 years?
Retail investor: ...way better than me.
Me: So the market worked fine. The activity/strategy is what didn't.
Retail investor: That's kind of depressing.
Me: It's actually the good news. You don't need more skill. You need to
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Retail investor: I've got $300k in the Nasdaq $Q. Honestly that feels like enough. I just let it ride.
Me: You're ahead of almost everyone. You should be proud of yourself!
Retail investor: Then what are you doing that I'm not?
Me: Your $300k does one job. It grows. Mine does two.
Retail investor: What's the second job?
Me: Securing puts. I promise to buy great companies at a discount & someone pays me cash today for the promise.
Retail investor: Do I have to sell my index funds to do that?
Me: Not a share. They keep compounding exactly like they do now. They just also back the trade.
Retail i
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Retail investor: I bought $Q right before COVID & panic sold when it crashed. Still makes me sick.
Me: I bought $Q in January 2020 also. Look at those lots.
Retail investor: ...those are all up over 200%.
Me: Yea... just the ones in this screenshot made me about $40,000
Retail investor: So the only difference is I sold.
Me: That's the only difference. You didn't pick wrong. You didn't time it wrong. You just reacted when it made sense to do nothing & actually even allocate more...
Retail investor: It felt like the world was ending.
Me: It always does at the bottom. That's what a bottom feels l
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Retail investor: How much cash do you keep on hand to secure all your puts?
Me: Here's my cash balance.
Retail investor: ...that can't be right. You make $25k a month selling puts.
Me: That's right. Cash isn't what secures them.
Retail investor: Then what does?
Me: My shares of $VOO + $Q + Elite companies. The broker just needs to know something covers the sold puts. Shares work.
Retail investor: So your shares are compounding AND securing the trades?
Me: Every day. Cash secured sellers park a mountain of money that earns nothing for months... if not years. This is where the portfolio secured
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