InvestingWithBrandon

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THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING THE UNTHINKABLE RIGHT IN FRONT OF US
Estimated EPS Q3 growth 28.5% YoY
Forward PE of 19.5
Economy ok
Interest rates ok (but on radar as they drift higher)
This is not a "bubble" being propped up by hype
This is a market being driven by REAL earnings strength
When profits are this strong, prices HAVE a reason to go higher
That is how markets work
EPS is strong & share prices will follow that in the long run
Will we get pullbacks & volatility? Of course!
But the long term investor will continue to win...
Retail investor: I could never hold through a real crash. I'd fold.
Me: You know $META fell from $382 to $89, right? Late 2021 to November 2022.
Retail investor: I remember. Everyone said the company was finished.
Me: 77% down. "Zuckerberg burned it all on the metaverse." Headlines were brutal. & at $89... would YOU have bought?
Retail investor: Honestly? No shot. It felt like it was going to zero.
Me: That's the thing. It was still printing billions in profit at $89. The fundamental BUSINESS value wasn't down 77%... the share price was. Very different... Price fell way below fair value.
Retai
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Just because YOU decided to be a big bad investor does not mean the market cares...
5 to 10% drops happen almost every year
10 to 20% drops happen almost every 3 years
20 to 40% drops happen almost every 8 years
40%+ drops happen almost every 25 years
What is my point?
Despite the volatility, every crash was opportunity to capitalize for the investor that kept ratios in check and knew what they owned and what hey owned it.
Those with emotions and ratios out of whack? SMOKED...
Please understand the market will be volatile going forward.
It's going to happen.
But the prepared investor will se e
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Someone paid me $10,203 to agree to buy their $TSM shares at $310... 2 years from now.
Breakeven? $259/share
Say that out loud. It sounds fake
They handed me $10,203, instantly, for a PROMISE
A promise to buy a company I already love, at a price I'd be thrilled to pay
If $TSM never drops there? I keep the $10,203 for nothing.
If it does? I buy a great company at a discount... & STILL keep the $10,203
& my base portfolio secured the whole trade, so no cash drag like CSP
This is the power of the portfolio secured put with ratios in check.
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TSM+1.17%
Retail investor: I can't figure this market out. $Q was at $558 not that long ago & now it's pushing $718. Nothing makes sense.
Me: What do you think changed between those two prices?
Retail investor: I mean... something big must have, right? That's a 30% swing.
Me: Has the EPS growth been strong this year?
Retail investor: ...VERY
Me: So the market fell below fair value in April & at the same time EPS growth is VERY strong & you are shocked the market made a big move like this?
Retail investor: Honestly... when we say it that way it all makes sense. There is just so much noise online it's har
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Retail investor: I pulled out. Market's way too volatile right now, too risky.
Me: What do you think happens to great companies when the market drops?
Retail investor: They... go down too?
Me: They go on SALE. Same elite businesses, lower price. & fear makes option premiums fat at the exact same time.
Retail investor: So a drop is actually... good for you?
Me: It's the best buying window of the year. While everyone panics, I'm selling portfolio secured puts & collecting fat premium & taking that to buy calls for bottom dollar cause nobody wants them.
Retail investor: So volatility isn't the ri
Retail investor: I trade short term options. Faster expirations, faster money. More theta.
Me: How do you know which way the stock moves in 5 days?
Retail investor: I read the charts, watch the setups...
Me: Be honest. Does anyone actually know what a stock does next week?
Retail investor: ...no. Even when I'm sure, I get it wrong half the time.
Me: Right. The short term is pure noise. So selling weeklies is just guessing a coin flip 52 times a year.
Retail investor: & you don't do that?
Me: I sell portfolio secured puts a year+ out. I'm not guessing next week, I'm betting a great company boug
THETA0.00%
I have over $3 MILLION bucks in the stock market in
$VOO and $Q
That will average 11% annually in the long run.
I’ll make $330k a year on average for doing nothing
This doesn't even account for the $25k+/mo I make with 1+ year portfolio secured put options
Fibonacci that!
VOO-0.13%
The average new car payment is over $700 a month now.
Here's what $700 a month does in the market instead, using nothing fancy... just $VOO & $Q compounding at what they've historically done.
10 years: roughly $150,000.
20 years: roughly $580,000.
30 years: well over $1,500,000.
That's the actual price of the truck. Not $55,000. A million and a half.
I'm not saying never buy a nice truck. I'm saying know what you're trading for it.
Most people have a $700 payment & a $0 brokerage account & genuinely can't figure out why the rich keep getting richer.
The truck depreciates the second you drive i
VOO-0.05%
I know a guy who makes $500k a year & has less invested than people making $80k.
Leased BMW. Jumbo mortgage. Private school. $13k months on his credit card.
Income isn't wealth. Income is water flowing through the house. Wealth is what's in the tank.
His pipe is enormous. His tank is empty.
Meanwhile the guy making $80k with 30% going into $VOO & $Q every month is quietly building something the $500k guy will never have... money that makes money without him.
The only number that matters is what you KEEP & put to work. Not what gets deposited.
You can out earn almost anyone & still end up broke
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When the market is cheap & everyone is panicking
Two things are true at the exact same time
1. Put options are expensive
Herd is buying them for protection
2. Call options are cheap
Nobody wants to be bullish
So I do both at once
Sell puts for top dollar
Buy calls for bottom dollar
Then the market recovers
The put I sold for top dollar is now worth almost nothing.
The call I bought for bottom dollar is now worth a lot.
Close both & Take the profit.
That is how you capitalize on human emotion
If you're reading this & you sell cash secured puts... I need you to do one thing.
Add up every dollar of cash you've had parked as collateral over the last 5 years.
Now pull up the $Q chart for those same 5 years.
That's what your collateral missed.
Not what you lost. What you never got. It doesn't show up on any statement, there's no red number, so nobody ever counts it.
You won your trades. Most puts expired, you kept the premium, high fives.
BUT! your collateral sat next to one of the best 5 year runs in history earning essentially nothing.
I ran the same trades. Same strikes. Same premium
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If I could send one message to myself at 20, it's this:
Stop.
Stop day trading. 99% lose. You are not the 1%.
Stop selling covered calls on companies you are bullish on. You're capping the upside which is the sole reason you bought the shares.
Stop parking cash to secure puts. Your base portfolio shares can do that job while they compound. Cash secured is the "underperforming" version.
Stop buying weeklies. Nobody knows what happens by Friday. Not even the CEO.
Stop looking for the complicated answer when there is a simple one.
Here's the whole thing: $VOO & $Q base. Never sell it. Sell 1+ yea
VOO-0.05%
Walk into a bank with $120k.
Buy a CD, collect your 4%.
Then ask to ALSO use that same $120k as a down payment on a rental property...
They'll laugh you out the building.
"You can't have your money in two places at once."
But that's exactly what I do every single month.
My shares ( $VOO / $Q ) sit there compounding ~11% a year.
Those SAME shares secure the puts I sell for another ~15%.
Same money. Two returns. Never on margin. Ratios always in check.
That's how 10% quietly becomes 25%.
And 25% is the difference between $1M and $61M over time.
Portfolio secured puts will change your life.
This i
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I hope everyone had a great week!
Enjoy the long weekend🥊
Retail investor: I sold a put & now I check it 20 times every single day. Can't stop.
Me: What are you checking for?
Retail investor: If it's going against me.
Me: & then what? What do you actually DO with that information?
Retail investor: ...nothing usually. I just look.
Me: Did you sell a long duration portfolios secured put on a great company at a good price?
Retail investor: ...dude IDK what that even means. This is a meme stock and I went 1 month out for the expiration date.
Me: Thats your problem... Garbage company. Bad valuation. Fear of assignment. Bad strike & expiration date.
Retail
25% a year turns $1,000,000 into $61,000,000.
11% turns that same million into about $8 million.
Same money. Same years. That gap is $53 million & it comes down to one thing... whether your collateral was allowed to work.
This is the cash secured put vs portfolio secured put.
A base of $VOO & $Q does the 11% on its own on average in the long run. That part's easy & almost nobody argues with it.
The other 14% ish comes from selling puts with my base portfolio securing it, not cash.
Same money. "Two returns." Not collecting margin interest. Ratios always in check to be fine in DEEP crashes.
That
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Do this exercise on the chart.
(it might cost you your favorite options strategy)
Pick any point on $NVDA's 5 year chart. Now draw a horizontal line about 5% above it. That's your covered call strike.
Watch how fast the chart blows straight through your line.
That's your shares getting called away. Everything above the line belongs to whoever paid you a couple hundred bucks for the call you sold them.
Now find the red stretches on the same chart. Where was your "protection" there from the CC? The premium covered a sliver. You ate the rest.
That's the covered call on a great company. It caps th
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