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InvestingWithBrandon

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Retail investor: I sold weekly puts on this hot AI stock because the premium was HUGE. Now I’m getting assigned
Me: What does the company earn?
Retail investor: ...it’s not profitable yet
Me: So what’s it worth?
Retail investor: idk...
Me: That’s the problem. You didn’t sell a put on a business. You sold a put on a premium
Retail investor: but the premium was like 4% a week
Me: The premium was huge because the risk was huge. The market was literally telling you
Retail investor: so what do I do now
Me: Ask yourself if you’d buy it today with cash. If the answer’s no, you now own something you n
I always say the EPS growth line is like a rubber band
Stretch the price way above it & eventually it snaps back down. Stretch it way below it & eventually it snaps back up
Going into October the market was stretched a little above fair value. Not crazy. Just a little hot
Now look at the Nasdaq $Q. Down about 7% from its October 5th high. In 13 trading days
That’s the rubber band snapping back
& here’s what most people miss... the snap back is where my best trades come from. When a great company gets pulled BELOW the line, that’s when I get interested in shares, 1+ year portfolio secured puts,
Two people sold Nvidia puts...
Person 1 sold a 30 DTE put a few weeks ago when $NVDA closed at $239. $225 strike. Which is about 6% below at the time of the trade.
“Safe enough”
Person 2 is me. December 2028 expiration, $180 strike. Breakeven $145.09
Yesterday Nvidia closed at $212
Person 1 is about $13 in the money with weeks to go. Refreshing their phone every hour. Deciding whether to eat the loss or get assigned & start the wheel
Me? Nvidia would have to fall another 15% just to touch my strike... & about 32% before I lose a dollar. & I’ve got 2+ years for the earnings to keep growing and
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NVDA-0.60%
Covered calls don’t protect your downside. Yesterday proved it
Say you owned 100 shares of $META & sold a covered call last week to “collect income”
Let’s be generous & say you collected $5 a share. $500
Yesterday Meta dropped almost $49 a share. That’s about $4,867 on 100 shares
Your $500 covered roughly 10% of the drop
& if Meta had ripped 10% instead? Your shares get called away & you miss the run
That’s the whole problem. You keep almost all of the downside & sell off the upside for a tiny premium
When I’m bullish on something I don’t sell covered calls on it. I hold the shares... or if I’
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Retail investor: Dude I got assigned on my chip stock. Sold 30 DTE puts for “income” & now I own the shares on the company...
Me: What are you doing about it now?
Retail investor: selling covered calls so I can get rid of the shares & get my cash back
Me: So let me get this straight. You were bullish enough to sell the put
Retail investor: yeah
Me: Then the stock dropped & now it’s CHEAPER than when you were bullish
Retail investor: ...yeah
Me: & now that it’s cheaper, safer & more compelling, you’re stressing to sell calls to get rid of it
Retail investor: I just want out
Me: That’s the wheel
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🟢How to fix your portfolio for 2027:
NO Day trading
NO Swing trading
NO Covered calls
NO Cash secured puts
NO BS
INSTEAD, I DO THIS:
- Build base portfolio (SP500, Nasdaq, Elite companies)
- Sell portfolio secured puts (not cash secured)
- BUY shares with the premium from sold puts
- Buy LEAP calls with the premium from sold puts
(all options durations are 1+ year long)
(much safer, easier, profitable, & reproducible)
Keep ratios in check to be fine in DEEP crashes.
Simple wins.
NDAQ-0.64%
Last week the AI bubble was “popping”
CoreWeave fell 25%. Chip stocks had their longest losing streak in almost 20 years. Korea had its worst week since 2008
This week?
"Ai is the best thing since sliced bread"
Nothing about AI changed between last Friday & this week. The mood did
This is why I STRONGLY push people to focus on the fundamental value of their holdings, not the market price.
Market prices bounce all over and will make you sick.
Fundamental value is where the true values of the businesses are.
That doesn't change day to day...
Focus on that and the market price will take care of i
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CRWV-2.46%
You would think the market was down 20% today with how many people are panicking now…
This is NORMAL & JUSTIFIED volatility.
Market was a little over valued and now it’s resetting. That is ok!
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Retail investor: Netflix is down 51% from its all time high. Time to back up the truck?
Me: Why do you want it?
Retail investor: it went from $130 to $65. It’s on sale
Me: That’s the price. What about the business?
Retail investor: it’s Netflix lol
Me: Revenue growth has slowed 3 quarters in a row. 17.6%... then 16.2%... then 13.4%... now 11.9%. & their guidance for next quarter is even slower
Retail investor: ok but it’s still growing
Me: Sure. But look who they’re fighting now. Disney & Hulu, Paramount, YouTube, Amazon... streaming services are a dime a dozen
Retail investor: so?
Me: So it’s
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NFLX-1.80%
DIS-0.58%
AMZN-0.97%
US500-0.39%
VOO-0.47%
At the end of 2022, $GOOG was $88.73 a share
It had just dropped about 39% in a year. Then ChatGPT launched & everyone said Google search was dead
A couple months later, Google’s own AI chatbot got a fact wrong in its launch demo... & about $100 BILLION of market value vanished
Every headline: Google lost the AI race
If you bought & did nothing...
It's now around $330
That’s about 3.8x. $10,000 would be worth roughly $38,000
Google reports next week & the worry is back... AI spending, competition, all of it
Maybe this time they’re right. But the “Google is dead” crowd has been wrong for about
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GOOG-1.13%
GOOGL-1.21%
If I could send one message to myself at 20, it's this:
Stop.
Stop day trading. 99% lose. You are not the 1%.
Stop selling covered calls on companies you are bullish on.
You're capping the upside which is the sole reason you bought the shares.
Stop parking cash to secure puts. Your base portfolio shares can do that job while they compound. Cash secured is the "underperforming" version.
Portfolio secured with ratios in check is better.
Stop buying weeklies.
Nobody knows what happens by Friday.
Not even the CEO.
Most people underperform the SP500.
Be careful listening to the "experts"
Stop looki
VOO-0.47%
Yesterday Iran threatened to cut the world’s internet (not kidding)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it could go after the undersea cables running through the Strait of Hormuz... “all of the world’s internet & commercial data depend on them”
The Dow went UP hundreds of points the same day
Here’s what the market has already dealt with this year:
A war with Iran & the Strait of Hormuz shutting down
Oil going from about $118 to $70... & back over $100
Tankers getting attacked almost every week
& now threats against the internet itself
& the S&P is still within a couple % of its all time high, up 1
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DOW+2.53%
SPX-1.24%
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Retail investor: $META reports tonight. Should I wait until after to buy?
Me: How long are you planning to own it?
Retail investor: years probably
Me: Then tonight matters way less than you think
Retail investor: but what if it drops 10% tomorrow
Me: It might. Options traders are pricing about a 6% move either way. But over 5 years, a 6% swing is just a bad week
Retail investor: so you’d just buy now?
Me: I’d check what it’s worth first. Meta’s around 22x next year’s earnings with revenue expected up about 24%. Durable moat. That’s a reasonable price for that kind of growth
Retail investor: &
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Retail investor: I'm holding cash until the next real crash. That's when I'll finally load up.
Me: Look at $Q's chart real fast. See 2018? COVID? 2022? TARIFFS? IRAN?
Retail investor: Yeah, the dips are obvious in hindsight.
Me: Ok. Did you buy any of them?
Retail investor: ...no. Every single one felt like the start of something worse.
Me: & that's the problem with the "plan." You've already had 5 "crashes" & bought ZERO of them. The next one will feel exactly the same... like the end of the world & you'll likely miss the opportunity again...
My point? No dip ever feels good. The market is us
I had a post about portfolio secured puts blow up recently, and there are a bazillion questions about how this actually works.
So let’s make this crystal clear.
Someone has $1,000,000 invested in the S&P 500.
They sell puts with a total assignment value of $500,000.
They have ZERO cash sitting in the account. Just shares.
Now imagine the S&P 500 gets absolutely smoked and falls 50%.
Their $1,000,000 portfolio is now worth roughly $500,000.
How much are they potentially on the hook to buy through their puts?
$500,000.
So where does the cash come from?
They sell shares from the existing portfoli
SPX500-0.10%
Unpopular but obvious opinion…
In order to allocate to any single company, it MUST be much more compelling vs the SP500.
If it’s not, your taking on single stock risk and not being compensated for it.
The hurdle right now:
SP500 forward PE = 18.8
YoY EPS growth = 30%
2027 FY expected EPS growth = 16%
Diversification = 500 ish companies
If the single company you have your eyes on is not orders of magnitude more compelling than that… your taking on risk and not being compensated for it.
$VOO
VOO-0.47%
HOW I’D INVEST $100,000 AFTER LAST WEEK’S AI SELLOFF:
(works at almost any size)
$35k $VOO
$35k $Q
$20k great companies growing earnings that got cheaper last week
$10k leap calls
That’s the base. It never gets sold
Then how bullish overall I am decides what I do next:
Bullish = keep buying shares
Really bullish = sell 1+ year portfolio secured puts
Max bullish = buy some 1+ year call options
No margin, no covered calls, no cash secured puts, no weekly options & no gambling.
Every “the AI trade is over” moment of the last 2 years is on this one $NVDA chart
January 2025: DeepSeek. Nvidia loses $589 BILLION in one day & closes at $118
April 2025: tariff panic. Nvidia falls to the mid $90s
March 2026: war with Iran, oil spikes to about $118 & the S&P drops about 8%
Last week: the CoreWeave debt scare. Chip stocks’ longest losing streak in almost 20 years. Nvidia down about 10% in 8 days
Yesterday: Nvidia around $218
Every one of those felt like the end. Every one of them looks like a buying opportunity now
Can it go lower from here? Absolutely
That’s why everything I
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NVDA-0.60%
SPX-1.24%
Retail investor: I just buy and hold index funds. Slow and steady.
Me: Good. Seriously. That's the base. I do the exact same thing with $VOO and $Q
Retail investor: Wait, you hold index funds too?
Me: Of course. The only difference is I don't let them just sit there. I use them as collateral and sell puts against them for another 15% ish on top.
Retail investor: So you're not replacing index investing… you're stacking on it?
Me: Exactly. You're doing step one perfectly. You just stopped before step two.
Retail investor: What if the market crashes with he portfolio secured put?
Me: Ratios are a
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VOO-0.47%
Friday: Nasdaq $Q −2.1%. Chip stocks down 8 days in a row. CoreWeave −12%. “The AI bubble is popping”
Yesterday: the Nasdaq bounced. Chip stocks ripped 3%+. Micron up about 5%. & Goldman upgraded CoreWeave to a BUY
So what changed about these businesses over the weekend?
Nothing
Nobody reported earnings. Nobody cut guidance. Not one number changed between Friday’s close & Monday’s open
The only thing that changed was the mood. Friday people were scared. Monday they got greedy again
That’s the market in the short term. It runs on emotion. Over years, it runs on fundamentals.
If you sold Friday,
NDAQ-0.64%
CRWV-2.46%
MU+2.39%
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