InvestingWithBrandon

If I could send one message to myself at 20, it's this:
Stop.
Stop day trading. 99% lose. You are not the 1%.
Stop selling covered calls on companies you are bullish on.
You're capping the upside which is the sole reason you bought the shares.
Stop parking cash to secure puts. Your base portfolio shares can do that job while they compound. Cash secured is the "underperforming" version.
Portfolio secured with ratios in check is better.
Stop buying weeklies.
Nobody knows what happens by Friday.
Not even the CEO.
Most people underperform the SP500.
Be careful listening to the "experts"
Stop looki

I had a post about portfolio secured puts blow up recently, and there are a bazillion questions about how this actually works.
So let’s make this crystal clear.
Someone has $1,000,000 invested in the S&P 500.
They sell puts with a total assignment value of $500,000.
They have ZERO cash sitting in the account. Just shares.
Now imagine the S&P 500 gets absolutely smoked and falls 50%.
Their $1,000,000 portfolio is now worth roughly $500,000.
How much are they potentially on the hook to buy through their puts?
$500,000.
So where does the cash come from?
They sell shares from the existing portfoli

Unpopular but obvious opinion…
In order to allocate to any single company, it MUST be much more compelling vs the SP500.
If it’s not, your taking on single stock risk and not being compensated for it.
The hurdle right now:
SP500 forward PE = 18.8
YoY EPS growth = 30%
2027 FY expected EPS growth = 16%
Diversification = 500 ish companies
If the single company you have your eyes on is not orders of magnitude more compelling than that… your taking on risk and not being compensated for it.
$VOO

HOW I’D INVEST $100,000 AFTER LAST WEEK’S AI SELLOFF:
(works at almost any size)
$35k $VOO
$35k $Q
$20k great companies growing earnings that got cheaper last week
$10k leap calls
That’s the base. It never gets sold
Then how bullish overall I am decides what I do next:
Bullish = keep buying shares
Really bullish = sell 1+ year portfolio secured puts
Max bullish = buy some 1+ year call options
No margin, no covered calls, no cash secured puts, no weekly options & no gambling.

“we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers”
That’s $ASML’s CEO. This past week.
Some customers are already trying to place orders for 2029 & 2030
Record quarter in sales. & they guided next quarter even higher.
$TSM said basically the same thing a day later... Revenue & EPS also exploding higher.
& chip stocks still fell 8 days in a row.
Right now the market isn’t trading the earnings. It’s trading fear about AI debt, rates & Iran
That gap between what the businesses are doing & what the stocks are doing is exactly

Retail investor: I’m going to cash until all this is over
Me: Until what’s over?
Retail investor: idk... the Fed, the election, Iran, the AI stuff
Me: Fed meets October 28th. Midterms are November 3rd. Big tech reports over the next two weeks
Retail investor: so like 3 weeks?
Me: Sure. & then what?
Retail investor: then I buy back in
Me: At what price? The market hates uncertainty more than anything. The second those things clear up, it usually moves before you’ve decided it’s safe
Retail investor: so you’re just riding it out
Me: Riding it out with my ratios in check. My portfolio secured put

Midterms are less than 3 weeks away & the market is getting choppy right on schedule
Midterm years have historically been weaker going INTO the election...
& then the year after has been a totally different story
The S&P 500 has been higher 6 months after every midterm election since 1954. Average gain in those 6 months: about 14%
Guaranteed this time? Nothing is. I’m not betting the farm on a seasonal chart
But combine it with a P/E right at its 10 year average & earnings growing ~29%... & the setup doesn’t scare me
Bumpy next few weeks? Probably. Especially with Iran in the headlines
That’s