InvestingWithBrandon

This is one of the most important charts I look at
10 years of the S&P 500. The bumpy blue line is the stock market. The smooth black line is the EPS.
Look at all the wiggles & volatility on the blue line.
All the times people panicked...
Now how many times did earnings actually fall in those 10 years?
Twice. Maybe 3 times if you count the tariff stuff last year
2 or 3 times in 10 YEARS the market genuinely had a problem under the hood. Everything else was "fear headlines"
& where are earnings right now? Up & to the right. Growing 31% year over year. Of course that will slow in 2027, but slowi

The best time to invest never feels like the best time
A couple months ago everybody was like... what color Lamborghini are you going to get?
That was kind of the worst possible time to invest. The market was HOT fundamentally.
Right now sentiment is bad. Everyone’s freaking out about the Fed, $NVDA, Iran, the bubble popping, ect...
& the Nasdaq is sitting right around fair value even after all of that
ROI usually looks the best going forward from when sentiment is bad & valuations are reasonable. Go look at 2022. Go look at April of last year. Look at April of this year...
I’m not promising a

If the Nasdaq $Q is down about 9% from ATHs, how much are YOU down?
Right now, my main $1.7m account that I show all the time is down about 7% from ATHs.
Think about that... I’m down LESS than the Nasdaq on a percentage basis... & I also have options in my account too.
That’s because I allocate to great companies at good prices & do options in a responsible, reasonable way. Ratios always in check.
Just because $NVDA is down a little that doesnt mean I am smoked. I have PLENTY of time for those trades to play out & again... RATIOS ARE IN CHECK. Nvidia can go to ZERO and I will be just fine.
So

Are we in a bubble right now?
Let’s just look at the cold hard data. The data that’s not debatable
88% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings
84% beat earnings expectations
74% beat revenue expectations
Earnings growth is 31.4% year over year. The average is 8 to 10%
The S&P’s forward P/E is 17.7. The 10 year average is 19
So we’re CHEAPER than the 10 year average... with way better growth & a solid economy
Did the bubble pop on some companies? Yeah. $INTC, $MRVL, $NOW, $CBRS stuff like that. Those were super expensive & they deserved it
But the whole market? No... not in my opinion.
Draw your o

Retail investor: I use a 20% stop loss on everything. Protects me from big losses
Me: So if a great company drops 20%, you sell?
Retail investor: automatically
Me: Morgan Stanley just did that with $NVDA. Pulled it from their top picks because it fell over 25%. Their rule made them
Retail investor: see, even the pros do it
Me: In the same note they kept their bullish rating & a $300 price target. The stock’s around $160
Retail investor: wait... they think it’s worth $300 & they sold it?
Me: That’s what a price based rule does. It makes you sell the thing you like at the worst price
Retail inve

A portfolio secured put is the closest thing I’ve found to a HELOC with no interest & no payments
With a HELOC your house is the collateral. The bank gives you cash & charges you interest every month
With a portfolio secured put, my portfolio is the collateral. The market pays ME cash up front. No interest. In exchange I agree to buy a great company below fair value 1-2 years from now
Portfolio secured puts > cash secured puts
This is how I scaled to 7 figures.
You can too.

Retail investor: CPI came in hot yesterday. Now the Fed might hike in December & the 10 year bond is back over 5%. Does that actually change what stocks are worth?
Me: Yes. Anyone who tells you rates don’t matter is lying...
Retail investor: wait I thought you’d say ignore it
Me: Nope. The bond yield is built right into my fair value math. When yields go up, the same earnings are worth less. So fair value comes DOWN
Retail investor: so stocks should fall
Me: Some should. Some shouldn't. The ones priced for perfection get hit hardest. That’s a lot of what’s been happening the last few weeks
Ret

Since Mid Term Election Day we’ve had...
The Dow’s best day after a midterm since 1982
The S&P’s worst day since April 2025
Retail’s biggest selling day since March 2020
The S&P’s best day in 7 months
A board investigation into Nvidia’s CEO
& a hot inflation report
If you slept through ALL of it, your S&P500 $VOO is down about 1%
That’s it
Now think about everyone who traded each one of those headlines. Sold Thursday, bought back Monday, sold again on CPI... paying taxes & stressing the whole way
I made zero panic moves in that stretch. Same base, same 1+ year puts & calls, ratios in check. Ca

Between 2004 & 2008, Warren Buffett sold put options on the S&P 500 & 3 other indexes
He collected about $4.9 BILLION up front
The expirations? YEARS out.
Then 2008 hit. On paper those puts were down billions. Everyone said he’d made a huge mistake
He did nothing. With that much time left, nobody could force him to buy anything. & he had the $4.9 billion invested the whole time (portfolio secured not cash secured)
The market recovered & the trade made billions
There was no pile of cash sitting on the side to secure it. Berkshire’s balance sheet secured it. The premium went to work on day 1. &