InvestingWithBrandon

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Most retail investors doing monthly puts think they are going to win...
Here is the math that ends that argument.
Market gets cheap.
I sell one 2 year put.
Collect $20,000 ish.
You sell monthly puts on the same company.
$1,000 per month average.
You make money in the up months.
You lose in the volatile months.
You have to sell at the top when it is not compelling.
After 8 months you made $8,000.
I made $20,000 in one trade when the market was cheap.
Took the premium.
Bought shares.
Bought calls.
Sat back.
4 months later the market rebounded.
I closed the 2 year puts at 75% profit.
I held them
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If you held a gun to my head and said "Brandon, beat the market in the next 10 years or you are dead"
I would say, no problem.
There is a 99% chance I will.
This is exactly how.
First off, "the market" is the SP500.
We will say I have a $1m account to start.
The first thing I would do to beat the market is to simply buy the market.
So I would buy $1m of $VOO (SP500 ETF)
Second, just buying the market via $VOO will actually underperform a tad because of the expense ratio... no prob
So here is the spot that matters to beat it.
In that 10 year period, I would be patient, sitting, & waiting for a
VOO0.42%
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9/10 times owning a home that you live in is a terrible investment.
Most people will say oh I bought it for 400 and sold for 500.
Yet they don’t add up what they paid in taxes, interest, HOA, insurance, etc over the hold period. Plus RE commissions to sell.
The stock market will VERY likely outperform your RE appreciation for a home you personally live in.
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10 ways to NOT be part of the herd:
1. Invest $100 right now (stop waiting for the “perfect time”)
2. Exercise for 30 min (yes, even if you're tired)
3. Play with your kids (put the phone down and be there)
4. Lock your phone in a drawer for 1 hour
5. Walk outside without headphones
6. Don't waste time watching TV (Netflix isn’t helping you)
7. Talk to your spouse for 30 min (not about to do items)
8. Eat something healthy (stop pretending cereal is food)
9. Drink water (not Gatorade, not soda)
10. Read one chapter of an investing book.
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So many people think more trades = more money.
That couldn't be further from the truth.
Think about Warren Buffett at $BRK.
He's one of the most "boring" investors of all time yet he is viewed as the best investor of all time.
Why?
Because he buys great companies at good prices & simply waits.
Does nothing.
Let's the revenue grow.
Let's the EPS grow.
Doesn't panic over every single headline.
& over the course of years, the stock will flow the fundamentals.
This again is why I NEVER do short duration plays, especially with options.
You don't have the tailwind of growth behind you... Don't make
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The best math you can learn is how to calculate the future cost of your current actions.
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A lot of people do cash secured puts, covered calls, poor man covered calls, & spreads.
A lot of people also underperform the Nasdaq...
$HOOD publishes this to show how bad the investors on their platform do in relation to buying $Q and doing nothing.
This should open your eyes
HOOD-3.18%
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Your HORRIBLE strike price is why you get smoked with options...
(how to fix it right now)
Most retail investors sell puts with a strike price 5% ish below the current market price to "build a margin of safety"
(bad)
They also usually do this with monthly contracts.
(bad again)
Here's the BIG problem.
5% is not a good enough margin of safety, especially with a 1 month contract where you have no tailwinds of growth behind you.
(as EPS climbs, the stock will follow that up)
The solution is to sell 1+ year portfolio secured puts.
You can pick a strike price 20% below the money, get great premium,
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The person selling monthly puts needs to hit 15 trades in a row for what I make in 1 single 2 year sold put.
(they won't)
To make it worse, they will force trades when it's not compelling to do so to make up for my 15x premium...
Even more worse for them, when I sell the 2 year put and pick up 15x the premium I am investing that premium at a compelling time when the stock is undervalued.
Them? They are blindly selling puts when it usually makes sense...
Remember, options are just a way to magnify something.
So the setup needs to be clear otherwise you magnify a losing position.
Monthly will no
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Stock options are ONLY a tool to magnify something.
The problem?
Most people use them blind and magnify things that don't deserve to be magnified.
You first need to start from square one & know if you are bullish or bearish.
Then flow through the "options hierarchy" to magnify based on how strong your conviction is.
Bullish flow:
1. Buy shares
2. Sell portfolio secured puts
3. Buy calls
Bearish flow:
1. Sell shares
2. Sell calls
3. Buy puts
Always keep ratios in check so one bad trade does not wipe you out.
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THE S&P 500 JUST DID SOMETHING VERY FEW PEOPLE UNDERSTAND
EPS growth just came in at 28.4% YoY.
That is NOT normal. That is explosive!
Normal is 10% ish annually & where the average 10% annual return for the SP500 comes from.
Profits drive stock prices!
So when earnings are growing at 28%... and the market is moving up…
That move is not random.
It's being justified by fundamentals.
Not all of it.
But a lot of it.
This is why the market does NOT need to crash just because it ran.
The floor just moved higher.
Now here is what actually matters…
First, some of this growth is inflated.
Big tech is
AMZN-2.04%
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People doing covered calls & cash secured puts learned a hard lesson this year...
For lack of better words, they got DESTROYED
Covered calls capped much of the upside for peanuts in premium.
Cash secured puts had a bunch of cash sitting there doing nothing not participating in the upside...
The portfolio secured put wins again.
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So many people wait for a losing trade to "go green"
The problem?
Opportunity cost!
Imagine holding on to a crap company simply so you can "break even"
Yet at the same time you see a major table pounder opportunity out there but you pass on it cause you are emotionally attached to the bad trade.
You would have been much better off taking the tax loss, accepting you made a bad trade, and allocating to the better opportunity with better upside potential.
Please don't do this...
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My overall thoughts on the market right now...
Valuations for the SP500 & Nasdaq are about 10% hot
Economy overall is holding up ok
Interest rates are at a fair level
EPS growth is very strong
So when you look at the "lay of the land" above, it looks "ok"
Not super good.
Not super bad.
But guess what... there will almost never be a perfect time to invest.
There is usually ALWAYS something to worry about.
This is why keeping ratios in check is CRITICAL
(never go too hard on one single trade/company)
Also critical to know what you own & the why behind it.
(everything needs to have a purpose in y
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These 3 stocks will likely outperform the market by a wide margin over the next 5+ years.
1 - $NVDA
2 - $TSM
3 - $META
Great valuations.
Strong EPS growth.
Solid competitive advantages.
What are your favorites?
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I make about $30k a month with options.
NO Day trading
NO Swing trading
NO Covered calls
NO Cash secured puts
NO BS
INSTEAD, I DO THIS:
Build base portfolio
Sell portfolio secured puts (not cash secured)
Buy LEAP calls with the premium from sold puts
BUY shares with the premium from sold puts
Be patient through volatility
(all 1+year option contracts)
I can explain it to a 12 year old & I will likely outperform 95% of people that read this.
Simple wins.
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If you put $2,000 into Micron $MU in 2010, you would be rich today.
Well...
Let’s play it out if you somehow did nothing & held until right now.
You would have about $3,250 by the end of 2015
and did nothing
Then watched that $3,250 climb to about $13,200 by the 2018 peak
and still did nothing
Then watched $13,200 get cut almost in half to about $7,300 in the late 2018 crash
and still did nothing
Then watched $7,300 rip to about $21,400 at the November 2021 peak
and still did nothing
Then watched $21,400 collapse to about $11,600 at the September 2022 bottom
and still did nothing
Then watched
MU0.47%
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The market is always emotional/fearful/greedy in the short term.
Long term the fundamentals will always win.
Stick to the plan
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Anyone that does CSP/CC/Wheel/PMCC/Spreads needs to watch this video I made on YouTube.
I bet you won't do it anymore after...
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