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InvestingWithBrandon

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When the market is cheap & everyone is panicking
Two things are true at the exact same time
1. Put options are expensive
Herd is buying them for protection
2. Call options are cheap
Nobody wants to be bullish
So I do both at once
Sell puts for top dollar
Buy calls for bottom dollar
Then the market recovers
The put I sold for top dollar is now worth almost nothing.
The call I bought for bottom dollar is now worth a lot.
Close both & Take the profit.
That is how you capitalize on human emotion
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Imagine a guy who knocks on your door every single day offering to buy your house.
Monday: "I'll give you $500k!"
Tuesday: "Actually... $430k."
Wednesday: "MARKET'S CRASHING. $350k, final offer!"
Thursday: "Never mind. $520k."
Same house. Nothing changed. He's just manic.
You'd never let that lunatic decide what your house is worth...
But that's EXACTLY what people do with stocks.
The price on your screen is just Mr. Market's mood that day... not what the company is worth.
The earnings decide what it's worth. His panic prices are just offers.
& when he shows up terrified offering me a great co
I retired at 31 doing this.
Step 1 = Build your base.
35% $VOO
35% $Q
20% high conviction companies near intrinsic value.
10% Bonds or leap calls if compelling
This is your foundation & your collateral.
Step 2 = Sell 1+ year portfolio secured puts.
Quality companies only.
Moat.
Pricing power.
Good valuation.
Collect the premium.
Pay zero margin interest.
Step 3 = Redeploy every dollar of premium.
More shares.
LEAPS on your highest conviction names.
Never let it sit as cash.
Step 4 = Keep ratios in check.
Always know your 7-day liquidity.
A 40% crash should not keep you up at night.
That is it.
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VOO-0.47%
Retail investor: Nvidia’s down from $242 to $211. I’m buying calls
Me: What expiration?
Retail investor: November
Me: So you need $NVDA to bounce in a few weeks
Retail investor: it always bounces
Me: Maybe. But Microsoft, Google & Amazon report next week, the Fed meets & midterms are right after. A lot can happen in a few weeks
Retail investor: so you wouldn’t buy calls
Me: I didn’t say that. I’d just go 1+ year out. My Nvidia calls expire in January 2028
Retail investor: those cost way more
Me: More up front, but you’re buying time for the earnings to actually grow & the thesis to play out. A
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NVDA-0.60%
MSFT+0.56%
GOOGL-1.21%
AMZN-0.97%
American Express just announced it’s cutting about 5% of its workforce
Netflix announced it’s cutting about 6% the same week it reported earnings
Meanwhile S&P 500 earnings are on pace to grow over 30% this quarter
Read that again. Companies are cutting jobs while profits are booming
I’m not saying this to scare anyone. It’s just how businesses work. They want the most output for the least cost, & AI is making that easier
Your job isn’t your safety net. Most companies will pay you just enough so you don’t quit
The way you protect yourself is by OWNING elite companies and buying when the price
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AXP-3.70%
NFLX-1.80%
Retail investor: I sold weekly puts on this hot AI stock because the premium was HUGE. Now I’m getting assigned
Me: What does the company earn?
Retail investor: ...it’s not profitable yet
Me: So what’s it worth?
Retail investor: idk...
Me: That’s the problem. You didn’t sell a put on a business. You sold a put on a premium
Retail investor: but the premium was like 4% a week
Me: The premium was huge because the risk was huge. The market was literally telling you
Retail investor: so what do I do now
Me: Ask yourself if you’d buy it today with cash. If the answer’s no, you now own something you n
I always say the EPS growth line is like a rubber band
Stretch the price way above it & eventually it snaps back down. Stretch it way below it & eventually it snaps back up
Going into October the market was stretched a little above fair value. Not crazy. Just a little hot
Now look at the Nasdaq $Q. Down about 7% from its October 5th high. In 13 trading days
That’s the rubber band snapping back
& here’s what most people miss... the snap back is where my best trades come from. When a great company gets pulled BELOW the line, that’s when I get interested in shares, 1+ year portfolio secured puts,
Two people sold Nvidia puts...
Person 1 sold a 30 DTE put a few weeks ago when $NVDA closed at $239. $225 strike. Which is about 6% below at the time of the trade.
“Safe enough”
Person 2 is me. December 2028 expiration, $180 strike. Breakeven $145.09
Yesterday Nvidia closed at $212
Person 1 is about $13 in the money with weeks to go. Refreshing their phone every hour. Deciding whether to eat the loss or get assigned & start the wheel
Me? Nvidia would have to fall another 15% just to touch my strike... & about 32% before I lose a dollar. & I’ve got 2+ years for the earnings to keep growing and
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NVDA-0.60%
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Covered calls don’t protect your downside. Yesterday proved it
Say you owned 100 shares of $META & sold a covered call last week to “collect income”
Let’s be generous & say you collected $5 a share. $500
Yesterday Meta dropped almost $49 a share. That’s about $4,867 on 100 shares
Your $500 covered roughly 10% of the drop
& if Meta had ripped 10% instead? Your shares get called away & you miss the run
That’s the whole problem. You keep almost all of the downside & sell off the upside for a tiny premium
When I’m bullish on something I don’t sell covered calls on it. I hold the shares... or if I’
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Retail investor: Dude I got assigned on my chip stock. Sold 30 DTE puts for “income” & now I own the shares on the company...
Me: What are you doing about it now?
Retail investor: selling covered calls so I can get rid of the shares & get my cash back
Me: So let me get this straight. You were bullish enough to sell the put
Retail investor: yeah
Me: Then the stock dropped & now it’s CHEAPER than when you were bullish
Retail investor: ...yeah
Me: & now that it’s cheaper, safer & more compelling, you’re stressing to sell calls to get rid of it
Retail investor: I just want out
Me: That’s the wheel
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🟢How to fix your portfolio for 2027:
NO Day trading
NO Swing trading
NO Covered calls
NO Cash secured puts
NO BS
INSTEAD, I DO THIS:
- Build base portfolio (SP500, Nasdaq, Elite companies)
- Sell portfolio secured puts (not cash secured)
- BUY shares with the premium from sold puts
- Buy LEAP calls with the premium from sold puts
(all options durations are 1+ year long)
(much safer, easier, profitable, & reproducible)
Keep ratios in check to be fine in DEEP crashes.
Simple wins.
NDAQ-0.64%
Last week the AI bubble was “popping”
CoreWeave fell 25%. Chip stocks had their longest losing streak in almost 20 years. Korea had its worst week since 2008
This week?
"Ai is the best thing since sliced bread"
Nothing about AI changed between last Friday & this week. The mood did
This is why I STRONGLY push people to focus on the fundamental value of their holdings, not the market price.
Market prices bounce all over and will make you sick.
Fundamental value is where the true values of the businesses are.
That doesn't change day to day...
Focus on that and the market price will take care of i
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CRWV-2.46%
You would think the market was down 20% today with how many people are panicking now…
This is NORMAL & JUSTIFIED volatility.
Market was a little over valued and now it’s resetting. That is ok!
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Retail investor: Netflix is down 51% from its all time high. Time to back up the truck?
Me: Why do you want it?
Retail investor: it went from $130 to $65. It’s on sale
Me: That’s the price. What about the business?
Retail investor: it’s Netflix lol
Me: Revenue growth has slowed 3 quarters in a row. 17.6%... then 16.2%... then 13.4%... now 11.9%. & their guidance for next quarter is even slower
Retail investor: ok but it’s still growing
Me: Sure. But look who they’re fighting now. Disney & Hulu, Paramount, YouTube, Amazon... streaming services are a dime a dozen
Retail investor: so?
Me: So it’s
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NFLX-1.80%
DIS-0.58%
AMZN-0.97%
US500-0.39%
VOO-0.47%
At the end of 2022, $GOOG was $88.73 a share
It had just dropped about 39% in a year. Then ChatGPT launched & everyone said Google search was dead
A couple months later, Google’s own AI chatbot got a fact wrong in its launch demo... & about $100 BILLION of market value vanished
Every headline: Google lost the AI race
If you bought & did nothing...
It's now around $330
That’s about 3.8x. $10,000 would be worth roughly $38,000
Google reports next week & the worry is back... AI spending, competition, all of it
Maybe this time they’re right. But the “Google is dead” crowd has been wrong for about
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GOOG-1.13%
GOOGL-1.21%
If I could send one message to myself at 20, it's this:
Stop.
Stop day trading. 99% lose. You are not the 1%.
Stop selling covered calls on companies you are bullish on.
You're capping the upside which is the sole reason you bought the shares.
Stop parking cash to secure puts. Your base portfolio shares can do that job while they compound. Cash secured is the "underperforming" version.
Portfolio secured with ratios in check is better.
Stop buying weeklies.
Nobody knows what happens by Friday.
Not even the CEO.
Most people underperform the SP500.
Be careful listening to the "experts"
Stop looki
VOO-0.47%
Yesterday Iran threatened to cut the world’s internet (not kidding)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it could go after the undersea cables running through the Strait of Hormuz... “all of the world’s internet & commercial data depend on them”
The Dow went UP hundreds of points the same day
Here’s what the market has already dealt with this year:
A war with Iran & the Strait of Hormuz shutting down
Oil going from about $118 to $70... & back over $100
Tankers getting attacked almost every week
& now threats against the internet itself
& the S&P is still within a couple % of its all time high, up 1
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DOW+2.53%
SPX+0.44%
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Retail investor: $META reports tonight. Should I wait until after to buy?
Me: How long are you planning to own it?
Retail investor: years probably
Me: Then tonight matters way less than you think
Retail investor: but what if it drops 10% tomorrow
Me: It might. Options traders are pricing about a 6% move either way. But over 5 years, a 6% swing is just a bad week
Retail investor: so you’d just buy now?
Me: I’d check what it’s worth first. Meta’s around 22x next year’s earnings with revenue expected up about 24%. Durable moat. That’s a reasonable price for that kind of growth
Retail investor: &
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Retail investor: I'm holding cash until the next real crash. That's when I'll finally load up.
Me: Look at $Q's chart real fast. See 2018? COVID? 2022? TARIFFS? IRAN?
Retail investor: Yeah, the dips are obvious in hindsight.
Me: Ok. Did you buy any of them?
Retail investor: ...no. Every single one felt like the start of something worse.
Me: & that's the problem with the "plan." You've already had 5 "crashes" & bought ZERO of them. The next one will feel exactly the same... like the end of the world & you'll likely miss the opportunity again...
My point? No dip ever feels good. The market is us
I had a post about portfolio secured puts blow up recently, and there are a bazillion questions about how this actually works.
So let’s make this crystal clear.
Someone has $1,000,000 invested in the S&P 500.
They sell puts with a total assignment value of $500,000.
They have ZERO cash sitting in the account. Just shares.
Now imagine the S&P 500 gets absolutely smoked and falls 50%.
Their $1,000,000 portfolio is now worth roughly $500,000.
How much are they potentially on the hook to buy through their puts?
$500,000.
So where does the cash come from?
They sell shares from the existing portfoli
SPX500-0.27%
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