InvestingWithBrandon

Retail investor: CPI came in hot yesterday. Now the Fed might hike in December & the 10 year bond is back over 5%. Does that actually change what stocks are worth?
Me: Yes. Anyone who tells you rates don’t matter is lying...
Retail investor: wait I thought you’d say ignore it
Me: Nope. The bond yield is built right into my fair value math. When yields go up, the same earnings are worth less. So fair value comes DOWN
Retail investor: so stocks should fall
Me: Some should. Some shouldn't. The ones priced for perfection get hit hardest. That’s a lot of what’s been happening the last few weeks
Ret

Since Mid Term Election Day we’ve had...
The Dow’s best day after a midterm since 1982
The S&P’s worst day since April 2025
Retail’s biggest selling day since March 2020
The S&P’s best day in 7 months
A board investigation into Nvidia’s CEO
& a hot inflation report
If you slept through ALL of it, your S&P500 $VOO is down about 1%
That’s it
Now think about everyone who traded each one of those headlines. Sold Thursday, bought back Monday, sold again on CPI... paying taxes & stressing the whole way
I made zero panic moves in that stretch. Same base, same 1+ year puts & calls, ratios in check. Ca

Between 2004 & 2008, Warren Buffett sold put options on the S&P 500 & 3 other indexes
He collected about $4.9 BILLION up front
The expirations? YEARS out.
Then 2008 hit. On paper those puts were down billions. Everyone said he’d made a huge mistake
He did nothing. With that much time left, nobody could force him to buy anything. & he had the $4.9 billion invested the whole time (portfolio secured not cash secured)
The market recovered & the trade made billions
There was no pile of cash sitting on the side to secure it. Berkshire’s balance sheet secured it. The premium went to work on day 1. &

Retail investor: I’m gonna start investing once I pay off my car & get my raise
Me: How long’s that?
Retail investor: idk like 5 years
Me: Let’s run the math. Start with $1,000, add $12,000 a year, average 10% a year for 25 years
Retail investor: ok
Me: About $1.3 million
Retail investor: nice
Me: Now wait 5 years first. Same thing, just 20 years
Retail investor: ...
Me: About $762,000. Waiting cost you about $546,000
Retail investor: for a car payment??
Me: & that’s at 10%. The higher your return, the bigger that gap gets... You don’t need the perfect moment. Every time you get paid, send wha

I make about $29k a month with stocks & options.
NO Day trading
NO Swing trading
NO Covered calls
NO Cash secured puts
NO BS
INSTEAD, I DO THIS:
Build base portfolio
Sell portfolio secured puts (not cash secured)
Buy LEAP calls with the premium from sold puts
BUY shares with the premium from sold puts
Keep ratios in check
I can explain it to a 13 year old & I will likely outperform 95% of people that read this.
Simple wins.

Retail investor: When’s the best time to sell puts?
Me: When you least want to
Retail investor: lol what
Me: Thursday the $VIX hit about 28. Everyone was scared & paying up for protection... When fear is high, put option premiums are high. So that’s when the person SELLING the put gets paid the most
Retail investor: & yesterday?
Me: The VIX closed under 20. Down almost 30% in 2 trading days. Same puts got a lot cheaper
The premium is highest when everyone’s scared, so that’s when I want to be selling portfolio secured puts on elite companies at good prices.

Hot take: the Nasdaq correction was healthy
$Q is about 14% off its high & everybody’s acting like the world is ending
But a few weeks ago Q was trading above fair value. The market was hot. That’s why I had bonds & an overall more conservative portfolio allocation.
Now Q is basically sitting at fair value
Not every dip is a table pounder buy. A drop from overvalued back to fair value is just the market fixing itself
But once a great index or company gets to fair value or below, THAT’S when I want to allocate. Shares, 1+ year portfolio secured puts, LEAP calls when I’m ultra bullish... ratios

My watch list got a LOT longer over the last couple weeks
Why?
The businesses are still growing & the fundamentals are improving. The prices fell
& this is when most investors do the opposite of what they should. Stocks get cheaper, they panic & move to cash
Then when the list is short & everything’s expensive, they feel safe & buy
Classic buying high & selling low.
Please do not be like most that let their emotions control how they invest.
We like deals to capitalize on with stocks & options!
That window is now open.

Retail investor: I’m waiting for it to drop a little more before I buy
Me: How much more?
Retail investor: idk... 5%?
Me: & if it drops 5%, will you buy? Or wait for 5% more because it’s still falling?
Retail investor: ...probably wait
Me: That’s what happens to most people. They wait through the drop because they’re scared, then buy after it already ran
Me: Where do you think the best AI companies will be in 3-5 years?
Retail investor: a lot higher probably
Me: So is the difference between today’s price & 5% lower going to matter?
Retail investor: probably not
Me: That’s why I go 1-2 years ou

In June, Jensen Huang ( $NVDA CEO ) stood on stage at Computex & called Marvell “the next trillion dollar company”
$MRVL was worth about $191 billion at the time. The stock jumped about 25% the next morning
It ran all the way to about $330 a share
On Friday it closed at $141. That’s about a $124 billion company
Less than it was worth BEFORE Jensen said a word
The price ran way past fair value & now it’s coming back down. Everyone who bought the headline near the top is down over 50%
This is what happens when you buy hype instead of at a good valuation...
AGAIN... THE PRICE YOU PAY MATTERS
In o

Intel is down about 60% from its high
People keep asking me if it’s a buy now because it’s “so cheap”
Is it though?
Revenue growth around 12%. A forward P/E around 40
Meanwhile Nvidia trades around 15x forward earnings with WAY faster growth. TSM is under 20x
So why would I pay 40x for 12% growth when I can pay half that or less for better companies growing faster?
This is the trap. People look at how far a stock fell instead of what they’re paying for the earnings
A 60% drop just means it was really expensive before & to be honest... $INTC still is expensive.
VALUATIONS MATTER!