#WTI原油失守90美元 On May 27th, Iran announced that it had received a draft memorandum of understanding with the United States containing 14 terms. According to the draft, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, the maritime blockade on Iranian ports will be lifted, and U.S. troops will withdraw from Iranian territory. However, the White House denied this claim. According to the disclosed "preliminary informal document," the contents involve issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements. The United States promised to lift the "maritime blockade" against Iran and withdraw some military forces deployed in the surrounding areas of Iran. In exchange, Iran will gradually restore the passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-escalation levels within a month, excluding military vessels. The management of ship passage and route arrangements will be coordinated jointly by Iran and Oman. As of the close on the 27th, WTI and Brent crude futures temporarily fell below $90 and $95 per barrel, respectively. Although the market's probability of a price decline remains, the chances of a rebound are still high.

Given that the oil fields closed in the Middle East and the damaged oil facilities are difficult to restore to normal levels in the short term, even if the Strait of Hormuz is immediately navigable, oil prices will not return to pre-U.S.-Iran war levels in the short term.

Crude Oil Market Supply and Demand Situation
Mainstream Institutional Crude Oil Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply side: EIA: Expected global oil production to be 101.6 million barrels/day in 2026, previously forecasted at 104.3 million barrels/day; expected 2027 production to be 109.5 million barrels/day, previously forecasted at 109.5 million barrels/day.
OPEC: Affected by the U.S.-Israel and Iran conflicts, and the obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC's April crude oil output further declined, hitting a new low in over twenty years.
IEA: Oil supply in 2026 will still be 1.78 million barrels/day less than total demand.
Demand side:
EIA: EIA has lowered the global crude oil demand increase for 2026 to 600k barrels/day, far below the supply increase, turning the global crude oil market into a surplus for the year. OPEC: OPEC has revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast from the previous 1.4 million barrels/day to about 1.2 million barrels/day.
IEA: The IEA clearly states that global crude oil demand in 2026 will slightly decrease by 80k barrels/day year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.5 million barrels/day in the second quarter, marking the largest quarterly drop since the pandemic. Main reasons for demand decline include high interest rates suppressing consumption in developed economies, accelerated renewable energy substitution, and weaker-than-expected economic recovery.

Crude Oil Futures Market Trend Forecast
Next Week Market Outlook
On the technical charts, international crude oil prices are generally showing a volatile downward trend.
Main factors pressuring oil prices this week:
1. Optimistic expectations that the U.S.-Iran situation may ease;
2. Continued prospects of reaching a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran;
3. Investors expect the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.
Main factors supporting oil prices this week:
1. Uncertainty remains in the U.S.-Iran situation, with significant disagreements;
2. The U.S. military launched small-scale attacks on Iran;
3. OPEC further reduced crude oil production. As of the 27th, WTI closed at $88.68 per barrel, down $9.58 or -9.75% week-on-week; for the week ending the 27th, the average WTI price was $93.88 per barrel, down $10.38 or -9.95% from the previous week. From a technical perspective, this indicates a high-level retreat in oil prices.
This week, U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are "progressing smoothly." Sources say that, according to the draft agreement, once officially signed, Iran will clear mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, ensuring free passage for all ships and stopping transit fees. In exchange, the U.S. will gradually and phasedly lift some sanctions on Iran, allowing Iran to resume oil exports and creating conditions for subsequent nuclear negotiations. However, the head of Iran's Parliament National Security Committee stated that Iran would not back down because of U.S. President Trump's remarks and would "stand firm on red lines" in negotiations, including uranium enrichment capacity and stockpiles, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief.
Earlier, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations during a cabinet meeting, also stating that he does not accept the new management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz being negotiated between Iran and Oman, and is not considering easing sanctions on Iran or reaching an agreement before further nuclear talks.
Jinlianchuang expects that next week (5.28-6.3), the U.S.-Iran peace process will face difficulties, with sporadic conflicts still occurring, and significant disagreements on core issues, making the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz's navigation uncertain.
Given the ongoing uncertainties in ceasefire negotiations, international oil prices are likely to continue fluctuating widely in the short term.