The recent crude oil market has shown wide fluctuations: on May 27, WTI futures settlement price briefly fell below the $90 mark to $88.68 per barrel, while Brent also dropped to $94.29 per barrel, hitting the lowest settlement price since April 17; however, the next day, stimulated by renewed US-Iran clashes, oil prices quickly rebounded, with WTI briefly recovering to $95 during trading. In terms of market pricing mechanisms, a noteworthy phenomenon is unfolding—the market’s desire for a deal has overshadowed the scrutiny of information authenticity.

US-Iran Situation: The anticipation of an agreement and the friction with reality are intensifying simultaneously, and a deadlock is likely to continue. Iranian media disclosed a draft memorandum of understanding on May 27, involving a 60-day ceasefire, lifting maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran gradually resuming commercial shipping within a month. The White House quickly denied this, claiming the draft was "completely fabricated," and Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the negotiation progress, threatening "either an agreement is reached or military action is taken."

The core disagreement in the negotiations centers on: Iran demands the US lift sanctions and unfreeze its overseas assets, while Trump attempts to tie the US-Iran deal to the inclusion of Middle Eastern countries like Oman in the "Abraham Accords." The two sides hold vastly different positions on their key demands. From a timing perspective, the official negotiations on June 5 will be a critical window for observation.

Even if both sides do reach a preliminary agreement, the actual timeline for restoring supply is generally underestimated. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company officials admitted that even if the conflict ends immediately, it would take at least four months to restore 80% of production, with full recovery expected by the first quarter of 2027. Additionally, clearing mines takes over two months, and navigational safety remains uncertain, so the pace of medium-term supply recovery is likely to be slower than market expectations.

The "dual squeeze" logic between macro demand suppression and low inventories. Under the combined pressure of high oil prices and prolonged high interest rates, demand-side pressures are becoming substantial. The latest IEA forecast predicts that global crude oil demand in 2026 will decrease by 420k barrels per day year-on-year to 104 million barrels per day. As the world's largest crude oil importer, China’s maritime imports in May are expected to be only 6.5 million barrels per day, with some tankers even reselling their cargoes, and refinery utilization rates remaining low.

Meanwhile, the inventory side continues to signal tightness. As of the week ending May 15, US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.86 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserves decreased by 9.92 million barrels; US gasoline inventories have fallen below the five-year seasonal lows. Goldman Sachs’ latest estimates show that by the end of April, global crude oil inventories were equivalent to about 101 days of global demand, expected to drop to 98 days by the end of May, approaching the "hundred-day warning line."

On the supply side, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a daily supply loss of over 10 million barrels globally, with OPEC production in April decreasing by nearly 10 million barrels per day compared to pre-conflict levels.

What is the outlook for oil prices? In the short term, the core issue is the disturbance caused by negotiation information. Any news about a ceasefire could trigger a sharp correction in oil prices, but in the medium term, low inventories and substantial supply gaps will provide solid support for prices. Even if an agreement is reached, restoring production will not happen overnight; combined with the upcoming summer peak demand season and countries’ replenishment needs after easing conflicts, the overall downside space for oil prices is relatively limited.

Overall, the likely trend for oil prices is to show a pattern of initially declining and then rising, with a rising bottom: in the short term, geopolitical easing expectations may lead to downward pressure (WTI fluctuating in the $85–93 range), but once the market realizes that supply recovery is below expectations and the low inventory resonance effect, the oil price center may rise again. If the deadlock continues into the summer peak season, the structural mismatch of oil supply and demand is expected to be further amplified. #WTI原油失守90美元