Bearish on $ETH

1. Spot ETF funds accelerate outflows
On May 28, ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $121 million in a single day, setting a new record for the highest daily outflow across 13 consecutive days. Over the past two weeks, the cumulative outflow reached $691 million. The pace of capital withdrawal continues to intensify, with no signs of slowing down, and pressure on the demand side is still expanding.

2. Underperforming relative to Bitcoin
The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.0273, near a 30-day low, only higher than the 6% historical level from the same period. The decline over 30 days is 9.2%. ETH is not falling passively with the broader market—it is clearly weaker than Bitcoin, indicating a lower willingness to allocate capital.

3. On-chain application demand declines
Over the past 30 days, the total amount of ETH locked in DeFi protocols fell by 7.1%. Real on-chain usage demand shrank in tandem, leaving the fundamentals without effective support.

Potential bullish signals

The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 23, entering the extreme fear zone. Judging from historical trends, this zone often means that sell pressure gradually exhausts and there is a possibility of a bottoming-and-reversal in the market. However, for now, it is only a sentiment-based reference signal.

Overall assessment

In the short term, a cautious bearish view is maintained, with accelerated institutional fund withdrawals as the main factor weighing on the market. Extreme fear only suggests that sentiment is near a bottom; a market reversal still needs to wait for concrete signs of stabilization, such as ETF outflows narrowing and funds returning.

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