The Strategy wallet transferred 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime! Polymarket bets a 74% chance of selling in June—Is Saylor really about to hit the market again?

This news might be the most chilling of the week.

🔥 On-chain monitoring shows: The wallet linked to Strategy transferred 411.48 BTC to Coinbase Prime, worth about $30.3 million. Saylor and Strategy have made no public statements yet. Immediately after, Polymarket’s odds exploded—Strategy’s probability of selling BTC before December 31, 2026: 91%; before June 30: 74%.

📍 Why is the market so tense? Strategy holds 843,738 BTC, making it the largest single buyer in the crypto market. It has purchased 171,238 BTC this year, more than twice the new production from miners during the same period. A company buying more than global miners are mining—if it shifts from "buy only" to "start selling," the supply and demand structure will completely reverse. Last week, Strategy already "stopped buying"—for the first time in weeks, it did not increase BTC holdings, instead spending $1.38 billion to buy back convertible bonds. Saylor explained it as "BitVac is charging." But now, 411 BTC have been transferred to exchanges… charging or discharging?

📍 Larger context: BTC whale outflows accelerate, on-chain data shows whale outflows reaching 648k BTC, a new high since February. The outflow from wallets holding 1,000-10,000 BTC has shrunk at the fastest rate since 2026. On May 26, an anonymous trade sold $1.29 billion worth of IBIT through an dark pool, causing BTC to drop 1.5% in 10 minutes.

📍 Market status: BTC temporarily stabilized around 73,000-73,600, but the fear index remains in extreme fear territory (22-23). ETH barely holds above $2,000; if it breaks below, the next support is around $1,950.

💬 What do you think: Is Strategy transferring coins to Coinbase Prime a normal operation or a sign of imminent selling? Can we still trust Saylor?